116 
FXUS63 KLMK 211910
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
310 PM EDT Tue Apr 21 2020

.Short Term...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 252 PM EDT Tue Apr 21 2020

Gusty westerly to northwesterly winds will begin to subside some 
late this afternoon and evening as high pressure builds in from the 
west. Skies will remain clear overnight, and with light to variable 
winds and dry air in place, temperatures will fall well into the 30s 
via excellent radiational cooling. The frost advisory has been 
expanded slightly westward, but still largely remains east of the I-
65 corridor as the best conditions for widespread frost will be in 
close proximity to the surface high. West of the I-65 corridor, 
frost is still possible, especially in confined valleys, but the 
potential for widespread frost is not as high. 

After a cold start to the day tomorrow, temperatures will warm up 
very quickly as southerly flow picks up in response to surface high 
pressure over eastern Kentucky. Clouds will also be on the increase 
ahead of our next system, and we may see enough moisture move in to 
generate a few showers well west of I-65 by early evening. Appears 
most of the rain will hold off until after sunset at this time.

&&

.Long Term...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 300 PM EDT Tue Apr 21 2020

Stacked low pressure system over Oklahoma tracks right over the 
County Warning Area (CWA) on Thursday. Rain showers and occasional 
thunderstorms could be possible into the afternoon. As the system 
moves into the Mid-Atlantic Thursday night into Friday the rain 
exits from west to east and is done for all locations by Friday 
daybreak. Rain amounts with this system will range from an inch to a 
few areas getting up to near 2 inches. 

Friday is a buffer between storm systems and will be dry and warm 
despite a north-northeasterly wind. Afternoon temperatures will 
reach the upper 60s to near 70. Rain showers and possible 
thunderstorms begin to push in across the region ahead of the next 
system Friday evening/night. This system takes nearly the same path 
as Thursday's storm system right over the Ohio River. Showers and a 
few thunderstorms are possible during the day Saturday. 

Storm system slowly exits out Sunday morning but there could be a 
slight chance of lingering rain showers. Temperatures behind this 
departing low will drop temperatures down into the mid/upper 50s. 

High pressure will drop in across the Ohio Valley on Monday to give 
us a slight break but another system is prog to arrive for the end 
of the period on Tuesday. Confidence is low as there is wide spread 
model discrepancies on timing and location of this system on 
Tuesday.

&&

.Aviation...(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 101 PM EDT Tue Apr 21 2020

VFR conditions expected through the forecast period. Gusty post-
frontal winds have climbed over 30kts at some locations this 
afternoon, and could persist for the next few hours before subsiding 
late this afternoon and evening. High pressure will build in from 
the west and winds will become light and variable overnight. The 
high will move east of the region by tomorrow morning and winds will 
shift to the south in response after sunrise.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 10 AM EDT Wednesday for INZ077>079-
     091-092.

KY...Frost Advisory from 2 AM EDT /1 AM CDT/ to 10 AM EDT /9 AM CDT/ 
     Wednesday for KYZ029>043-045>049-053>057-064>067-077-078-
     082.

&&

$$

Short Term...DM
Long Term...BTN
Aviation...DM