922 
FXUS64 KMEG 202333
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
633 PM CDT Mon Apr 20 2020

.UPDATE...

Quick update to account on radar trends and short term guidance.
Thunderstorms moving into Northeast Arkansas are likely producing
small hail and 25 to 35 mph wind. Increased pops through much of
the night to account for ongoing convection and possible
additional development. 

30

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 624 PM CDT Mon Apr 20 2020/ 

A weak shortwave within the northwest flow will track across the 
northern part of the forecast area tonight. This will provide a 
low chance of showers and thunderstorms well north of I-40 this 
evening with some hail possible.

A stronger system as a surface low and associated upper level
progressive trough will move through the forecast area late
Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Showers and thunderstorms
will likely occur late Wednesday into early Thursday from this
system as warm moist advection will fuel elevated convection
Wednesday followed by frontal dynamics early Thursday. There is a
potential for severe weather Wednesday night into early Thursday
with wind and hail the biggest threats and the southern part of
the forecast area having a higher threat than the north.

Another cold front will provide a chance of showers and 
thunderstorms Friday afternoon into Friday night followed some
showers over the weekend as a cool trough pattern prevails with
weak shortwaves moving through the region.

SWC

&&

.AVIATION...00Z TAF cycle

VFR conditions will continue for the entire forecast period. An
area of thunderstorms is currently over northwest sections of the
Mid-South. This activity will slowly fall apart as it moves
southeast. Winds will be mainly from the southwest tonight at 5 to
10 knots before shifting to the northwest on Tuesday.

ARS23008

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$