180 
FXUS63 KOAX 202034
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
334 PM CDT Mon Apr 20 2020

...Updated Forecast Discussion...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 256 PM CDT Mon Apr 20 2020

Our Monday afternoon has been a breezy one, but still plenty warm
despite the gusty northwest winds across the region. Temperatures
are in the upper 60s to lower 70s with winds gusting 30-40 mph at
most locations. Humidity fell into the 17-28 percent range as
expected, with additional decreases likely in the next few hours,
and the resulting very high to extreme fire danger will persist
through approximately 7 PM today. One interesting feature at the
moment is the southwesterly extension of a short wave trough as
the trough axis is moving across the forecast area this afternoon.
Ahead of the trough axis have seen an increase in shallow cumulus
cloud cover at the top of the mixed layer near 10k feet AGL. There
are a few weak returns showing up on radar, but with the high
cloud bases and RH around 20 percent it is very unlikely that
precip will reach the surface. Behind the trough, subsidence is 
evident in WV imagery over SD and now moving into far northern NE.
This has helped to increase wind gusts a bit to 40 kts or
stronger. Northeast NE may experience a few of these stronger
gusts in the late afternoon hours as well, but should see a
general decrease in the intensity as we approach sunset.

Surface high pressure builds over the region tonight with winds
becoming light by morning. This will offer an efficient
radiational cooling night once the winds die down, and have
adjusted temperatures a bit cooler than most guidance especially 
in northeast NE. Tuesday will feature a return of light southerly
flow and warm advection. Model guidance has been persistently much
too cool and moist with surface T/Td predictions in similar days
this spring so have gone several degrees warmer and a good amount
drier than almost all guidance...leaning close to a RAP solution.
This will result in another day with RH potentially at or below 
20 percent, but winds will be light enough that there is no
extreme fire danger expected. Rather, it will probably be a "Top
10 day" with widespread upper 60s to mid 70s, sunshine, and light
winds.

Expect a bit of low-level moisture return on Wednesday in advance
of a weak cold front. This could be sufficient to spark showers 
and a few thunderstorms along the advancing front in the 
afternoon. At this time, instability appears minimal and surface 
convergence along the front is not clearly strong enough to 
initiate convection so strong storms are unlikely. A better chance
of rain arrives late Thursday into early Friday with a strong 
storm system and attendant cold front. Once again, instability is 
weak and while thunderstorms are possible it appears unlikely to 
pose any organized severe threat at this time. A few areas may 
pick up a half inch of rain or so. Will have some cold advection 
behind this system with Fri/Sat/Sun highs in the 60s. For the most
part, morning lows should be around 40, but IF high pressure and 
clear skies should time themselves to arrive around sunrise on any
given morning could see temperatures approach freezing.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1222 PM CDT Mon Apr 20 2020

VFR conditions expected through the TAF period. Expect wind gusts
to 25 kts at OMA/LNK and 30 kts at OFK this afternoon, but gusts
will end shortly after sunset.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Red Flag Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for NEZ011-012-
     015>018-030>033-042.

IA...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Barjenbruch
AVIATION...Barjenbruch