411 
FXUS64 KTSA 201520
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1020 AM CDT Mon Apr 20 2020

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...

A dense fog advisory has been extended through 11am for points
within the Arkansas river valley. The last few visible satellite 
images have shown erosion of the fog bank speeding up. The 
majority of the fog should be gone by 11am. 

Low end pops were also added to parts of southeast Oklahoma for
the next few hours given weak echoes seen from KTLX over portions
of central Oklahoma. These showers should dissipate this afternoon
as the lower atmosphere warms and drys. 

This afternoon does feature a risk for storms with a few storms
potentially pulsing up to be strong or marginally severe. 
Afternoon forecast soundings across NE OK and NW AR show an 
inverted V in the lower atmosphere indicative of the potential for
a few isolated severe wind gusts. Soundings also show a small 
amount of veering and curvature in hodographs (SRH 0-1km on the 
order of 50 to 100m^2/s^2 and 0-3km SRH in the range of 100 to 
150m^2/s^2) which seem to indicate that a storm or two could
weakly rotate this afternoon. Shear above about 2km show mostly 
unidirectional shear with winds increasing with height. This will 
likely promote linear storm structures this afternoon focused 
along the incoming cold front. Given fairly high LCLs, steep lapse
rates, the inverted V sounding mentioned earlier, and SBCAPE 
values on the order of 500 to 1000J/kg this afternoon, it appears
the main severe threats will be isolated damaging wind gusts and 
isolated large hail up to quarter size. 

Snider 

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   77  51  75  55 /  20  20   0  60 
FSM   74  52  78  56 /   0  10   0  40 
MLC   73  51  78  59 /  20  10  10  60 
BVO   76  47  74  53 /  20  20   0  50 
FYV   71  48  72  54 /  10  30   0  40 
BYV   70  47  73  51 /  20  30   0  30 
MKO   74  51  76  56 /  10  20   0  60 
MIO   74  47  71  51 /  30  30   0  40 
F10   74  53  77  57 /  10  20   0  60 
HHW   72  53  79  60 /   0  10  10  40 

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM CDT this morning for OKZ070>072-
     074-076.

AR...Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM CDT this morning for ARZ019-020-
     029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21