347 
FXUS62 KMLB 191912
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
312 PM EDT Sun Apr 19 2020

.DISCUSSION...
...Marginal Risk of Severe Storms on Monday...

Tonight and Monday...A rather scant CU field has been confined
largely to surface boundary locations at early afternoon. The 
east coast breeze boundary appears to hold potential for some 
initial pcpn development by late afternoon, and PoP chcs have been
lowered slightly from the earlier morning pkg as it appears there
is more inhibition than indicated earlier. The east coast remains
favored for some late showers and a few storms before dusk. Any 
activity will transition to the waters early in the evening.

Atmospheric winds will increase markedly early Monday as a potent
low develops over the SE. Indications are that convective parameters
will become increasingly favorable for storm development from 
mid-day and through the afternoon. Strong winds in the lwr/mid 
levels of the atmosphere will lead to threat of strong to potentially
damaging gusts in any stronger storms which develop. All of east 
central FL has been placed in a Marginal Risk of severe storms. 
Training of cells may lead to some locally higher rain amounts as 
well with the usual threats of lightning and small hail. PoP 
coverage will be highest across the I-4 corridor to the Space 
Coast, Volusia Co. and Osceola Co. during Mon. Persons should
monitor the forecasts and remain alert to the possibility of
weather statements and or warnings on Monday.

Mon Night...Aloft, we find weak troughing across the region with 
occasional weak impulses traversing the north-central FL peninsula. 
At the surface, a weak cool frontal boundary will slide southward 
across ECFL overnight. A small threat (20pct) for evening showers 
will exist near/north of I-4 with a 30-40pct chance for evening 
showers/slight chance storms southward. Earlier day breezy/gusty 
SW/WSW winds will continue SW/W and gradually diminish. Overnight 
lows in the 60s with skies considerably cloudy.

Tue-Wed...Drier weather conditions expected thru mid-week as the 
previous front shifts farther south and high pressure builds toward 
the Mid-Atlantic coast, then gets nudged into the western Atlc Wed 
night with the approach of the next low pressure system. Highs will 
still reach the mid to upper 80s (maybe 90F interior) on Tue and low 
to mid 80s on Wed. The Volusia coast may not make it out of the 70s. 
Overnight mins generally in the 60s. Normally cooler rural locations 
may realize U50s on Wed morning.

Thu-Sun...Rain chances return to the forecast late week and into the 
weekend as low pressure over the Lower Mississippi Valley shifts 
east-northeast dragging another front toward the region. PoPs 
increase from around 30 percent into Thu afternoon, to 40-60 percent 
on Thu night/Fri as showers and storms increase ahead of the 
approaching front, with a few stronger storms again possible. Front 
looks to not completely make it through the area, keeping a 
lingering chance for showers and storms into Sat/Sun. Highs will 
remain above normal ranging from the mid 80s to near 90 degrees 
areawide. Lows continue well into the 60s with some L70s around as 
well.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conds the remainder of the day and into tonight
with LL winds increasing before daybreak Mon. On Mon, increasing 
likelihood of numerous showers and embedded thunderstorms ahead 
of an approaching cold front. Including VCSH for DAB/LEE after 
12Z, with higher confidence of VCTS arriving near MCO after 
14-16Z. Brief MVFR/IFR reductions and gusty winds possible in 
strongest storms.

&&

.MARINE...
Tonight and Monday...Increasing winds late this evening begin 
over the waters. Caution stmts will revert to an advisory over 
the outer waters early Monday. Winds and seas will increase,
especially over the outer waters early Monday, with some fetch 
protection reducing seas along the immediate coast. Strong storms
moving offshore will likely lead to the issuance of marine 
warnings at some point during Monday. 

Mon Night-Thu...Cautionary statements likely for the Gulf Stream Mon 
night for WSW-WNW winds 15-20 kts as a weakening front crosses the 
waters overnight. The pressure gradient relaxes through mid-week 
with high pressure influence to the north but tightens again on Thu 
with a likely return to Cautionary Statements offshore with the 
approach of the next low pressure system. Seas will return to 
favorable for small craft boating, but also begin to build again on 
Thu 4-5 ft near shore and 5-6 ft offshore.  

Some ISOLD-SCT offshore moving convection expected Mon evening, then 
mostly dry Tue-early Thu, then an increase from north to south for 
some showers and storms.

&&

.Fire Weather...Tue-Wed...Post-frontal conditions with afternoon min 
RH values approaching 35-40pct over the interior and 45-55pct closer 
towards the coast. Surface/20-FT winds approaching 10-15 mph on Tue 
and lighter Wed as the pressure gradient relaxes further.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  71  87  64  86 /  20  70  20   0 
MCO  72  87  67  89 /  20  60  20   0 
MLB  73  91  67  87 /  20  50  40  10 
VRB  71  92  67  87 /  20  50  40  10 
LEE  73  84  66  87 /  20  70  10   0 
SFB  73  86  67  89 /  20  70  20   0 
ORL  73  87  68  90 /  20  70  20   0 
FPR  72  92  67  88 /  20  40  40  10 

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 4 PM EDT Monday for Flagler 
     Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 20-60 nm-Sebastian 
     Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 20-60 nm-Volusia-Brevard County Line 
     to Sebastian Inlet 20-60 nm.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...Pendergrast
LONG TERM....Sedlock