217 
FXUS64 KTSA 182338
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
638 PM CDT Sat Apr 18 2020

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Ongoing VFR conditions will deteriorate overnight with lowering
ceilings and expanding area of showers and isolated storms.
Prevailing IFR ceilings are likely by early Sun morning with
continued shower chances through the afternoon hours. Thunderstorm
potential will remain through the morning with decreasing chances
by late afternoon as a weak cold front slides southward. Ceilings
will trend upward after the frontal passage.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 215 PM CDT Sat Apr 18 2020/ 

DISCUSSION...
After a widespread freeze, (pretty much all areas along and north
of I-40), this afternoon is quite nice with 60s and light
southeasterly winds. Deepening southerly flow will bring moisture
back to the area tonight, with showers and few storms developing 
this evening and through the night in the stronger warm air 
advection zone ahead of the approaching upper disturbance.

Additional showers/storms appear likely going into the afternoon,
especially across southeast OK into western AR, as the surface low
and attendant warm front track across northern TX. There should be
enough elevated instability north of the warm front to support a
few severe storms, with large hail being the main concern. Most of
the convection will shift east of the area by late afternoon/early
evening.

Monday and Tuesday look to be mild and dry as shortwave ridging
builds ahead of the next upper system. Expect high temperatures in
the 70s both days.

A compact upper low is forecast to eject from the southwestern
states Tuesday night into the souther Plains on Wednesday. Still
some timing differences noted with the GFS remaining more
progressive than the ECMWF, but Wednesday into Wednesday night
continues to be the favored time frame for widespread showers and
storms. Given the time of year and strength/track of this system,
some severe weather certainly appears possible. After this system
exits east, another cold front and associated precipitation is 
slated for Friday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   52  68  46  75 /  50  60   0   0 
FSM   51  68  46  74 /  60  80  10   0 
MLC   54  70  47  74 /  40  50  10   0 
BVO   47  67  44  74 /  60  50   0   0 
FYV   48  64  44  71 /  70  70  10   0 
BYV   46  62  43  71 /  70  70  10   0 
MKO   52  66  45  72 /  50  70  10   0 
MIO   48  65  43  71 /  70  70  10   0 
F10   53  68  45  73 /  40  60  10   0 
HHW   55  73  50  73 /  30  60  10   0 

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$


AVIATION.....07