672 
FXUS64 KTSA 171924
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
224 PM CDT Fri Apr 17 2020

.DISCUSSION...
Low clouds are hanging tough this afternoon, although visible sat
imagey is showing some recent thinning. Expect clouds to rapidly 
clear by early evening, with temperatures dipping to around 
freezing Saturday morning over far northeast OK into northwest AR
as the surface ridge settles in. Have issued a Freeze Warning for
this area with a Frost Advisory across the surrounding portions 
of northeast OK and west central AR.

The surface high will shift quickly east by Saturday, with milder
afternoon conditions expected. Moisture won't get swept too far 
south of the area, and increasing southerly flow will allow the 
better moisture (PWATS around an inch) to spread back into the 
region by late Saturday/Saturday night. The better chances of 
showers and a few storms should hold off until Saturday night into
Sunday as the main upper wave zips across the Southern Plains. 
There's still some uncertainty if a significant warm sector will 
develop (noted that the 12Z ECMWF has shifted even farther south 
with the surface low), although enough elevated instability may 
exist for a few strong/severe storms on Sunday mainly south of 
I-40.

GFS/ECMWF still showing strength/timing differences with the mid-
week system, although both models peg Wednesday as the best day
for any significant convection. The next cold front looks to move
into the area late in the week. Stuck pretty close to NBM numbers
for the extended, with overall seasonal temps expected.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   34  66  52  68 /   0  10  70  50 
FSM   37  67  51  70 /   0  10  70  70 
MLC   37  67  56  73 /   0  20  50  40 
BVO   31  66  50  68 /   0  10  70  50 
FYV   30  65  50  66 /   0  10  70  70 
BYV   32  66  47  64 /   0  10  70  70 
MKO   34  65  52  68 /   0  10  70  60 
MIO   31  64  49  65 /   0  10  70  70 
F10   36  66  54  70 /   0  20  60  40 
HHW   41  66  56  76 /   0  20  40  40 

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Frost Advisory from 3 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday for OKZ054-059>062-
     067-068-072.

     Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday for OKZ055>058-063-
     069.

AR...Frost Advisory from 3 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday for ARZ019-020.

     Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday for ARZ001-002-010-
     011.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....18