020 
FXUS64 KFWD 081814
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
114 PM CDT Wed Apr 8 2020


.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Through Thursday/

Threats: Isolated strong to severe storms this afternoon in 
Central Texas. Additional non-severe precipitation possible south 
of I-20 Thursday afternoon. 

This afternoon...
A sharp southwest to northeast moisture gradient has developed as
dry air from West Texas gradually makes its way throughout the 
region. A deck of mid and high clouds continues to be in place 
across the region, but the expectation is that through the rest of
today, this deck will continue to shift to the east. The clearing
skies and increasing westerly/southwesterly winds will allow for 
temperatures to climb to near record territory for many locations 
across North Texas. With widespread 90s across North Texas this 
afternoon, don’t forget to grab your water bottle if planning on
participating in socially distant outdoor activities. 

This morning’s Fort Worth sounding sampled a stout capping 
inversion thanks to the westerly winds a few thousand feet above 
the surface. It is likely that this capping inversion extends well
into Central Texas as a fairly uniform westerly 925mb wind 
remains in place. As a drier airmass continues to push 
east/southeast this afternoon, any kind of convection will be 
unlikely across North Texas given the dry nature of the 
atmosphere. Further south, across Central Texas, there will likely
be enough surface heating to contribute to at least a few showers
and storms, some of which could be strong to severe. The main 
threat will likely remain south of a Waco to Palestine line as it 
appears that the latest CAMs initiate along the dryline at this 
position. With a couple thousand J/kg of MLCAPE and 50-55 knots 
of deep layer shear, any storm that develops would be capable of 
tapping into the high amounts of energy and produce large hail. 
With temperatures in the upper 80s and dew points in the lower 70s
across Central Texas, enough low-level dry air will be in place 
to also enhance the threat of damaging winds from water-loaded 
downdrafts. 

The main window for any of this convection to develop will remain
fairly narrow given the quick moving upper level shortwave along 
the southern jet stream. If storms develop, the most likely time 
frame would be between 3pm to 8pm. After 8pm, the loss of sunlight
will contribute to the likely weakening and dissipation of any 
convective development. 

Tonight...
As storms dissipate across Central Texas, the next item
of interest will be the southward moving cold front expected to 
enter North Texas around midnight. Moisture content will remain 
fairly low across North and Central Texas with abundant westerly 
winds in place. The lack of moisture and surface convergence will 
keep the region free of any precipitation along the front. The 
main difference will be winds will become northerly with a 
sensible difference in temperatures as widespread 50s return to 
areas north of I-20. 

Tomorrow...
By Thursday afternoon, the cold front will likely be draped from 
southwest to northeast south of our Central Texas counties just as
another impulse makes its way across Central Texas. This weak 
impulse will induce an elevated northward mass response, helping 
to draw moisture northward into much of Central Texas. Rain 
chances will be highest in the afternoon just as the upper level 
support moves on through the region. Severe weather potential will
remain low across the region, but can’t rule out an isolated 
instance of large hail across Central Texas. Much stronger 
convection is expected to develop south of the front, keeping the 
highest severe weather potential along the Texas coastal bend. 

Hernandez

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 306 AM CDT Wed Apr 8 2020/

/Thursday through Tuesday/

A northern branch upper trough will move quickly east across the 
Mid-west on Thursday, sending a cold front deep into Texas.
The front should clear the southern border of the CWA before 
midday, bringing cooler and drier air. Highs Thursday will range 
from the upper 60s near the Red River to the upper 70s across the 
far southern zones. The front will likely come through dry, but 
some post-frontal showers and isolated storms will be possible 
Thursday afternoon/evening, with the best chances across Central 
Texas where lift will be enhanced from a passing shortwave. 

The overnight hours Thursday through Friday morning will be on 
the cool side (lows in the 40s and 50s) and mainly rain-free due 
to low level dry/cold air advection and weak subsidence under a
transient upper level ridge. 

Large scale lift will increase Friday afternoon/night as 
shortwave energy ejects out of the base of a closed upper low 
rotating across the Desert Southwest. Low level moisture will also
increase ahead of this system, resulting in scattered to numerous
showers and isolated thunderstorms. 

Lift will be maximized on Saturday as the upper low opens up and 
moves northeast across the state. This will be the most favored 
time for showers and thunderstorms with some locally heavy rain 
possible, especially across Central Texas. Strong dynamics and 
moderate instability may result in a few strong/severe storms. We 
will continue to assess the severe weather potential for Saturday 
in the coming days. 
 
Precipitation chances will decrease from west to east Saturday 
night/early Sunday morning with the departing upper trough. The 
ECMWF is still the slow solution and doesn't move the trough axis 
through until after sunrise Sunday. Therefore, we will linger some
low PoPs through midday Sunday since this is still a plausible 
solution. Once the trough axis passes to the east, clouds will 
clear with increasing large scale subsidence and the arrival of 
dry air behind a cold front. Sunday afternoon should be sunny, 
seasonably mild (highs in the 70s), dry and breezy. Continued 
cold/dry air advection Sunday night will result in chilly temps 
for mid April with lows mainly in the 40s.

The first half of the next work week will see below normal 
temperatures along with some low rain chances in the north, 
compliments of some weak shortwave energy embedded in west/
northwest flow aloft. Limited moisture will keep precipitation 
light. Highs Monday through Wednesday will be below normal with 
mainly mid 50s to mid 60s. Lows will be very cool, ranging from 
the mid 30s in the northwest to the mid 40s in the south. At this 
time, it does not appear that any zones will see freezing 
temperatures.

79

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/18Z TAFs/

Dry air is beginning to infiltrate North Texas as a dryline makes
it way east and southeast. This will help keep all North Texas 
TAF locations VFR through the duration of this cycle. A cold front
will be advancing southward tonight, turning the region’s 
westerly winds to a northerly direction shortly after midnight. No
precipitation is expected along the front anywhere in North 
Texas. 

For Waco, convective potential will increase this afternoon as 
the dryline helps set off showers and storms across Central Texas.
The highest storm potential will likely remain south of Waco, but
given the proximity to the expected thunderstorm development, 
have kept a mention of VCTS for a brief period this afternoon. 
Convection will wane after sunset, leaving behind VFR conditions. 
The cold front mentioned above will make it to Waco by late 
Thursday morning, ushering in weak northerly winds to the area. 

Hernandez

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    60  74  55  70  57 /   0  10  10   5  40 
Waco                63  75  56  71  58 /  20  30  20  10  40 
Paris               58  71  51  66  51 /   0  10  10   5  40 
Denton              58  71  52  69  55 /   0  10  10   5  50 
McKinney            59  72  52  69  55 /   0  10  10   5  40 
Dallas              62  74  55  71  57 /   0  10  10   5  40 
Terrell             62  74  53  70  55 /   0  20  20   5  40 
Corsicana           65  75  56  70  57 /   5  30  20  10  40 
Temple              66  75  57  71  60 /  20  50  20  10  50 
Mineral Wells       58  71  52  69  55 /   0  20  10  10  60 

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

8