431 
FXUS62 KFFC 051930
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
330 PM EDT Sun Apr 5 2020


.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Monday Night/...

Precipitation associated with the weak wave moving along the gulf 
coast has pushed away from the southern fringes of the forecast area
this afternoon, however, isolated to scattered convection has fired 
across the coastal plain southeast of the area on the sea breeze. I 
have kept slight chance to low chance PoPs across the southeastern 
corner of the forecast area through the remainder of the afternoon 
until the early evening. Also seeing some enhanced CU across the 
northeast Georgia highlands as well so I have also kept slight chance
PoPs there as well in this same time frame. 

No significant pattern change through Tuesday as the forecast area 
remains on the northwesterly flow side of the shallow upper ridge 
anchored over the central/western Gulf of Mexico. Just enough 
moisture/instability for another chance for isolated convection 
across the far northeast again tomorrow. 

Temperatures remain a bit above seasonal normals through the period.

20


.LONG TERM /Tuesday through Sunday/...

No big changes were made to the long term. Models continue to 
diverge on strength and timing of potential disturbances tracking 
along the broad northwest to west upper flow. The first more certain 
wave should allow for widespread showers and isolated to scattered 
thunderstorm potential Tuesday into Wednesday. Looks like limited to 
moderate instability available so not expecting severe weather at 
this time. 

Models have some agreement on a possible cold front passage for 
Thursday...again with limited moisture. Given how far out this 
feature is...have continued a general chance pop for showers and 
thunderstorms. With fast zonal flow persisting into the weekend the 
models have some difficulty in timing of the next short waves. There 
appears to be some drying indicated for a portion of the forecast 
area for Saturday but not confident on this. In general...a chance 
or slight chance of showers and thunderstorms will continue for much 
of north and central GA through the weekend. 

Temperatures should be above climo normals through Thursday...then 
back below normal Friday/Saturday behind the late week cold front. 

41


&&


.AVIATION...
18Z Update...

VFR conditions will predominate through the forecast period. Local 
MVFR or lower visibilities are possible 06Z-14Z in fog-prone areas, 
however no impacts are expected at any of the TAF sites at this 
time. An isolated shower is possible this afternoon over the higher 
terrain in the northeast Georgia mountains. Winds will be light, 
generally 6kt or less, from the southeast to southwest through 00Z, 
becoming very light southwest to west after. Southwest to west winds 
increase slightly to around 4-8kt by 18Z Monday.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...

Medium to high confidence all elements.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          56  82  59  77 /   5  10  10  70 
Atlanta         59  81  62  76 /   5   5  20  70 
Blairsville     50  76  55  71 /  10  10  30  70 
Cartersville    52  82  59  76 /   5   5  30  70 
Columbus        61  84  62  82 /   5   5  10  70 
Gainesville     54  80  59  74 /   5  10  20  70 
Macon           57  83  60  81 /   5   5  10  60 
Rome            53  82  59  76 /   5   5  30  70 
Peachtree City  56  82  60  79 /   5   5  20  70 
Vidalia         59  83  62  84 /  10   5   5  40 

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....41
AVIATION...20