AFOS product AFDIND
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Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDIND
Product Timestamp: 2020-04-05 17:08 UTC

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606 
FXUS63 KIND 051708
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
108 PM EDT Sun Apr 5 2020

.UPDATE...
The AVIATION Section has been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 347 AM EDT Sun Apr 5 2020 

Weak high pressure will build into the area today, bringing mainly 
dry conditions into Monday. A frontal system will then bring rain 
chances to the area Monday night into Wednesday night. Another 
system will bring more rain chances next weekend. After a brief 
warmup into mid-week, below normal temperatures will return to end 
the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(Rest of Today)
Issued at 1002 AM EDT Sun Apr 5 2020 

Visible satellite loop shows plenty of cloud cover across central 
Indiana at 10 am, with a few breaks over central Illinois that could 
move into the western/southwestern counties over the next several 
hours. Overall still looking at cloudy skies for most of the area 
through the day. High temperatures in the mid 50s to around 60 look 
reasonable given the cloud cover. Rain showers have moved east of 
the forecast area for the most part (a sprinkle still over Randolph 
county but moving east) and the rest of the day should be dry.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday night)
Issued at 347 AM EDT Sun Apr 5 2020 

Models are close enough that the SuperBlend initialization 
was accepted for most items.

Weak high pressure will build into the area tonight. This will keep 
the area dry but lingering moisture will keep skies partly cloudy.

A warm front will move through the area Monday, but the front won't 
have much forcing with it. Will go dry all areas Monday during the 
day.

Some upper energy and in increasing low level jet will interact with 
the front Monday night to generate convection Monday evening, and 
this will move southeast during the night. Will go with likely PoPs 
in the far north with chance PoPs elsewhere.

NBM looks overdone with PoPs during the day Tuesday given little 
forcing behind the first wave of convection. Lowered PoPs some. A 
trough will move through Tuesday night and could bring some 
additional convection. Went mainly chance PoPs Tuesday and Tuesday 
night.

Temperatures will start warming up Monday as the warm front moves 
through. Confidence is lower with highs Monday as there is some 
timing questions with the advance of warm air.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Through Saturday)
Issued at 347 AM EDT Sun Apr 5 2020 

Models are close enough that the model blend initialization 
was accepted for most items.

A decent cold front will move through Wednesday night bringing 
another round of convection. Otherwise mainly dry conditions should 
prevail until Saturday, when another front approaches the area.

Cyclonic flow aloft across the area  will help bring in below normal 
temperatures for much of the long term period. However, Wednesday 
will be warm with warm advection ahead of the cold front. 

&&

.AVIATION /Discussion for 051800z TAF issuance/...

Issued at 102 PM EDT Sun Apr 5 2020

Scattering and clearing of MVFR deck has begun at KLAF and will
spread southeast from there. Thus expected other sites to rise to
VFR over the next 6 hours, with KBMG the last to scatter out. 
Northeasterly winds will continue to weaken and become light and 
variable overnight under building high pressure. Winds will become
southeasterly Monday morning, and could shift to southwesterly 
Monday afternoon, but speeds should remain less than 10 kts. No 
visibility restrictions expected.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50 
NEAR TERM...CP 
SHORT TERM...50 
LONG TERM....50 
AVIATION...CP