552 
FXUS62 KMLB 311948
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
348 PM EDT Tue Mar 31 2020

...Cold Front Approaching the Area, Scattered Showers and Isolated
Storms Possible Overnight...
...High Fire Danger Continues This Week...

.DISCUSSION...
This Afternoon...Earlier low-level stratus this morning has 
lifted, transitioning into a deck of cumulus across the entire 
peninsula. A sfc low currently centered over central AL and 
accompanying cold front will continue an eastward progression, 
leading to a tightening pressure gradient evidenced in 
increasingly gusty winds this afternoon. So far today, highest 
gusts have been observed at interior locations, up to 30-35 mph, 
with sustained speeds near 20 mph. Deep southwest flow has 
advected warmer air to the area and inhibited the development of 
the east coast sea breeze today, thus sending anticipated 
afternoon highs skyrocketing into the upper 80s to low 90s. 
Several record high temps are at risk this afternoon, especially 
for coastal sites where values could easily approach 91- 92 
degrees. 

Tonight...With scattered cloud cover and sufficient heating this 
afternoon, the focus shifts to this evening and early tonight as the 
aforementioned cold front reaches east central FL. Model runs today 
have continued to favor a line of scattered showers and embedded 
isolated thunderstorms to reach the northern forecast area soon 
after sunset, remaining intact through the I-4 corridor through 
midnight, then becoming broken as the boundary pushes south of Cape 
Canaveral to the Treasure Coast after midnight. This system will be 
fast moving, clearing the forecast area prior to daybreak, however, 
the potential for accompanying severe weather is non-zero at this 
time. Instability parameters in latest runs look more conducive for 
isolated tstorm development, and thus have included slight thunder 
chance mention from 8PM-Midnight for locations along and north of 
the I-4 corridor. This area is also the most favorable for sub-
severe to severe wind gusts, as the Storm Prediction Center has 
highlighted in a "Marginal Risk". 925 mb winds increase quickly near 
sunset along with a surge of DCAPE up to 1500-1800 J/kg. Thus the 
svr wind potential is present, but gusts most likely will peak at 45-
50 mph prior to midnight. 

Tomorrow...After the front quickly pushes through to S FL early 
tomorrow, west to southwest winds will veer northwesterly tomorrow, 
advecting noticeably cooler and drier air to the region. The streak 
of record high days will finally come to an end tomorrow, with max 
temps topping out in the low 70s to the north, mid 70s from Orlando 
to the Cape and low 80s for the Treasure Coast to Lake Okeechobee. 
PoPs will return to zero, with significantly drier air limiting 
cloud cover. 

Thursday-Friday...Late week weather looks dry with temps closer to 
seasonal normals as post-frontal high pressure resides over the area 
and then offshore by late Friday night. Afternoon highs in the upper 
70s along the coast, and low 80s inland marking the beginning of a 
slow warm trend. Morning lows Thursday and Friday in the mid/upper 
50s for most areas, some low 50s for the rural interior.

Saturday-Tuesday...(modified previous discussion) Western Atlantic 
high pressure ridge will control the local weather pattern in the 
extended range, as it gradually weakens and its axis drops southward 
into Florida. Afternoon guidance continues weakening trend in mid 
level vorticity moving across Florida this weekend, and decrease in 
available moisture. While the GFS indicates a more robust shortwave, 
the available moisture is very low with low QPF numbers for the 
northern areas Sunday afternoon. The only rain chances, around 20 
percent, in the extended period are limited to Sunday afternoon 
along and north of I-4. 

Near to slightly above normal temps Saturday will warm back to well 
above normal by Tuesday, when mid/upper 80s to low 90s are
forecast.&&

.AVIATION...
Strong SW winds persist at all terminals this afternoon, with 
sustained speeds near 15-18 kts with gusts as high as 25-30 kts. 
Winds will only slightly diminish this evening ahead of an 
approaching cold front and associated line of showers and iso 
thunderstorms. As of now, confidence in TS is not high enough to 
include in TAFs, but and chance will favor terminals from KMCO 
northward. These same locations also have the highest likelihood of 
SHRA tonight, handled with TEMPO from 01-05Z. The line of showers 
will push quickly across the area, clearing KSUA by 10Z. Behind the 
front, winds veer NW, with SKC behind the boundary.

&&

.MARINE...
Tonight...Tightening pressure gradient and approaching cold front 
will increase SW/W winds this afternoon and evening up to 20 kts 
nearshore and 20-25 kts tonight in the offshore waters, with gusts 
to gale force possible after midnight. As the cold front passes 
across the local waters tonight, showers and isolated thunderstorms 
will have the potential to produce gusty winds up to 35 kts after 
sunset offshore Volusia County, and clearing Jupiter Inlet after 3 
am. Initially, seas of 2-4 ft but will quickly build 3-5 ft 
nearshore and 5-7 ft offshore. A Small Craft Advisory will go into 
effect soon after sunset tonight.

Tomorrow...Behind the front, winds veer northwest, diminishing only 
slightly in the afternoon. Seas will remain at 3-5 ft nearshore and 
building up to 8 ft in the offshore waters. The SCA will taper to 
just the offshore waters, but small craft should use continued 
caution in the nearshore.

Thursday-Friday...A potential surge of hazardous seas is becoming 
more likely on Thursday. Model guidance shows another brief building 
of swells Thursday into Thursday night, pushing seas up to 5-7 feet 
nearshore and up to 8 feet in the Gulf Stream. Hazardous conditions 
quickly improve by late Friday morning, though small craft may want 
to exercise caution. Seas subside to 4-6 feet over the waters under 
northeast winds around 10 knots by Friday afternoon. 

Saturday-Sunday...From late Saturday onward, both the WNAWAVE and 
NWPS models continue to show a very large swell rebuilding into the 
local Atlantic (up to 12 feet) starting late Saturday night. This 
surge is associated with a powerful north Atlantic storm, and there 
is the potential for a high surf event this weekend, something to 
watch as the week progresses.&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Minimum RH will remain slightly above critical values today, but
drier air behind tonight's cold front passage will allow values to
dip below 35% across the interior tomorrow, and 40-45% along the
coast. With rainfall chances becoming minimal after tonight, the 
fire danger will continue to rise through the remainder of the
week, as drought conditions worsen. At this time, Wed- Fri look 
to be the more fire-weather sensitive days. A high fire danger 
will persist through this week.

&&

.CLIMATE...
As of 330 PM, both Vero Beach and Ft Pierce have recorded a max
temperature of 93 degrees, which not only shatters the daily
record high, but also ties the all-time March record high at both
sites. With additional heating over the next hour or so,
additional records may be broken at other sites. 

Site Date   Record    
            /Year                             
DAB  3/31  90-1954
LEE  3/31  88-2016
SFB  3/31  92-1970
MCO  3/31  95-1907
MLB  3/31  91-1954
VRB  3/31  90-1975
FPR  3/31  90-1993


March 2020 Stats/Rankings...

With well above normal temperatures ending out the month, it will be 
the warmest March on record for Daytona Beach, Leesburg, Sanford and 
Orlando. 

As of right now it is the driest March on record for much of the 
area. However, any additional rainfall before midnight EST (or 1AM 
EDT) from fast moving isolated to scattered showers that cross the 
area this evening could change these current rankings slightly. 
Regardless, this March will still be one of the driest on record.


March 2020 Average Temperature (Through March 30th): 

Site:            Avg. Temp:      Ranking (Top 10): 

Daytona Beach    70.8 (+6.4)     Warmest (Record: 70.1/1945)
Leesburg         73.8 (+8.0)     Warmest (Record: 72.3/2012)
Sanford          73.4 (+6.9)     Warmest (Record: 72.3/2003) 
Orlando          73.8 (+6.9)     Warmest (Record: 73.7/1907) 
Melbourne        71.0 (+5.1)     7th Warmest 
Vero Beach       72.3 (+4.9)     4th Warmest 
Ft. Pierce       71.0 (+3.9)     -


March 2020 Total Rainfall (Through March 30th):

Site:            Rainfall:       Ranking (Top 10): 

Daytona Beach    0.02" (-3.82")  Driest (Record: 0.08"/2006) 
Leesburg         Trace (-4.04")  Driest (Record: 0.04"/2006)
Sanford          0.03" (-3.74")  2nd Driest (Record: T/2006)
Orlando          0.02" (-3.36")  Driest (Record: 0.02"/2006)
Melbourne        0.03" (-2.95")  Driest (Record: 0.03"/1956)
Vero Beach       0.02" (-3.70")  Driest (Record: 0.09"/1956) 
Ft. Pierce 0.02" (-3.31") Driest (Record: 0.19"/1917)

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  60  72  52  76 /  40   0   0   0 
MCO  62  77  53  80 /  50   0   0   0 
MLB  65  75  55  78 /  40   0   0   0 
VRB  67  76  55  77 /  40   0   0   0 
LEE  59  75  53  80 /  50   0   0   0 
SFB  61  75  53  79 /  40   0   0   0 
ORL  62  77  55  80 /  50   0   0   0 
FPR  67  78  54  78 /  40   0   0   0 

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 8 AM EDT 
     Wednesday for Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 
     0-20 nm-Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 0-20 nm-Volusia-
     Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 0-20 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 5 PM EDT 
     Wednesday for Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 
     20-60 nm-Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 20-60 nm-Volusia-
     Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 20-60 nm.

&&

$$

Smith/Rodriguez