263 
FXUS64 KMAF 301746
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1246 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2020

.DISCUSSION...

Please see 18Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR with decreasing high clouds will continue at all TAF sites.
Southwest winds are expected to increase by this afternoon around
20-25 kts with gusts between 35-40 kts possible. Winds should
diminish by 31/02Z and begin to slowly veer out of the WNW.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 258 AM CDT Mon Mar 30 2020/ 

DISCUSSION...

Current satellite shows a great deal of Pacific moisture and high
cloud cover streaming over the area this morning. This will keep
winds modest this morning but these clouds will move east this 
afternoon, allowing for plenty of mixing and windy conditions 
across much of the CWA. An upper trough will move east into the 
Central Plains this afternoon bringing a pacific cold front that 
will affect mainly wind direction and speed, though not much with
temperatures due to a severely modified air mass crossing the 
Rockies from the West Coast.

Yet another cold front moves through the area Friday, and having
better access to Canadian air will have more of an affect on
temperatures dropping them back below normal for the weekend. A 
quick return of southeasterly gulf air overriding northeasterly 
surface flow will generate enough lift and moisture to provide a 
low chance for rainfall behind the front in the eastern Permian 
Basin and lower Trans Pecos through the weekend as well. 

Hennig

FIRE WEATHER...

A strong upper level storm system will move across the Southern 
Plains today bringing windy to very windy and very dry conditions 
to west Texas and southeast New Mexico. At the same time fuels 
continue to dry with ERC values expected to range from the 50 to 
65th percentile across much of west Texas (except the eastern 
Permian Basin) and the southeast New Mexico Plains to around the 
50th percentile across the Guadalupe Mountains. RFTI values will 
generally range from 5 to 8. Will go ahead and upgrade the 
remaining watch area to a Red Flag Warning for today into early 
this evening which would include all of the southeast New Mexico 
Plains, Guadalupe and Davis Mountains, Trans Pecos, Big Bend and 
western Permian Basin. Will expand the warning a row further east 
into the central Permian Basin to include Lamesa, Midland and 
Crane as warning criteria will likely be met in those areas as 
well. Conditions will improve early this evening as winds diminish
significantly due to nocturnal cooling. Poor to fair overnight rh
recovery is expected Tuesday morning. Conditions are expected to 
improve Tuesday and Wednesday as winds diminish despite dry 
conditions persisting. By next Thursday fire weather concerns will
increase again as drying persists and westerly surface winds 
increase again.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     48  74  52  77 /   0   0   0   0 
Carlsbad                       45  77  53  80 /   0   0   0   0 
Dryden                         54  83  56  82 /   0   0   0  10 
Fort Stockton                  49  77  55  82 /   0   0   0  10 
Guadalupe Pass                 44  69  52  72 /   0   0   0   0 
Hobbs                          44  75  50  76 /   0   0   0   0 
Marfa                          39  77  46  80 /   0   0   0   0 
Midland Intl Airport           49  77  54  77 /   0   0   0   0 
Odessa                         48  77  54  77 /   0   0   0   0 
Wink                           46  79  53  82 /   0   0   0   0 

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for Chavez Plains-
     Eddy Plains-Lea-Sacramento Foothills and Guadalupe 
     Mountains.

     Wind Advisory until 7 PM MDT this evening for Central Lea County-
     Eddy County Plains-Northern Lea County-Southern Lea County.

     High Wind Warning until 7 PM MDT this evening for Guadalupe 
     Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ this evening for 
     Andrews-Central Brewster County-Chinati Mountains-Chisos 
     Basin-Crane-Davis Mountains-Davis Mountains Foothills-
     Dawson-Eastern Culberson County-Ector-Gaines-Guadalupe 
     Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-
     Loving-Lower Brewster County-Marfa Plateau-Martin-Midland-
     Pecos-Presidio Valley-Reeves County Plains-Upton-Van Horn 
     and Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

     Wind Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for Andrews-Crane-
     Davis Mountains-Davis Mountains Foothills-Dawson-Eastern 
     Culberson County-Ector-Gaines-Loving-Marfa Plateau-Martin-
     Midland-Reeves County Plains-Van Horn and Highway 54 
     Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

     High Wind Warning until 7 PM MDT this evening for Guadalupe 
     Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains.

&&

$$

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