209 
FXUS63 KOAX 281131
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
631 AM CDT Sat Mar 28 2020

...Updated Aviation Forecast Discussion...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 308 AM CDT Sat Mar 28 2020

Forecast remains on track today with a strong area of low pressure
moving across the forecast area. This will bring widespread
showers to the area today, with even a chance of thunderstorms for
some areas. The movement of the surface low also places for the
forecast area in a 25 degree temperature swing, only reaching the
mid 40s in northeast NE, but just short of 70 in extreme southeast
NE and southwest IA. Northeast NE will also see 1-1.5" of rainfall
today, and areas south of I80 may be dry slotted with less than
0.25". 

Perhaps the more significant impact will be strengthening winds
this afternoon and evening to 45 to 55 mph as 3-6 mb 3-hour 
pressure rises move into the region. There is some concern that 
we could meet high wind warning criteria for areas between Omaha 
and Sioux City Both HRRR/RAP models suggest the wind gusts could 
approach 55 to 60 for a time 23-03z, but those models tend to run 
a little hot on the wind gusts, but it is something we'll monitor
for possible upgrade later this morning if necessary. 

In the warm sector to the south of the surface low, southwesterly
wind gusts could also approach 45 mph this afternoon near the 
NE/KS/MO border region and points to the south, but believe winds
gusts may be just shy of advisory criteria in our area, with
stronger gusts across KS and MO.

Regarding thunderstorms, based on recent CAM solutions, there is 
a small wind of opportunity for some thunder early this morning 
before 12z, then again late morning 15-18z, and perhaps even into 
the afternoon along the I80 corridor as that area remains just 
ahead/northeast of the surface low as the cold core moves in 
aloft. 

Precipitation ends tonight with a dry and beautiful day expected 
for Sunday, with significantly less wind. Fortunately, it appears
that the precipitation ends as rain with surface temperatures not
falling to critical thresholds until after the precipitation ends.

Otherwise, more precipitation is expected Monday night into Tuesday
as the next trough moves through the region. Pops increase to 40-60%.
And another wave brings more rain chances Tuesday night into early
Wednesday. Wednesday afternoon through Friday appears dry. 

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
Issued at 620 AM CDT Sat Mar 28 2020

LIFR and IFR conditions will continue across the region, along
with areas of fog and drizzle this morning. Precipitation is
expected to spread back into the forecast area by late morning. A
few thunderstorms maybe possible amongst the showers by early 
afternoon. Northwest winds will increase to 20-30 kts with gusts 
up to 45kts possible this afternoon and evening as a strong front 
moves through the region. Conditions are expected to gradually
improve after 06Z tonight. 

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Wind Advisory from 7 PM this evening to midnight CDT tonight for 
     NEZ053-067-068.

     Wind Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to midnight CDT tonight 
     for NEZ015-033-034-043>045-050>052-065-066.

     Wind Advisory from noon today to midnight CDT tonight for NEZ011-
     012-016>018-030>032-042.

IA...Wind Advisory from 7 PM this evening to midnight CDT tonight for 
     IAZ055-056-069-079-080-090-091.

     Wind Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to midnight CDT tonight 
     for IAZ043.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DeWald
AVIATION...KG