153 
FXUS62 KJAX 271939
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
339 PM EDT Fri Mar 27 2020

...ALL-TIME RECORD WARMTH FOR THE MONTH OF MARCH EXPECTED THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...

NEAR TERM...[Tonight through Saturday]...Mostly clear, warm and 
dry conditions into this evening with troughing over the ern zones
associated with development of the east coast sea breeze, which 
should be confined to areas around I-95 eastward. The sfc ridge 
will be over central FL area through tonight, with broad southwest
to south flow expected tonight with lows in the 60s. Some fog and
stratus are expected again mainly over the wrn zones, with some 
dense fog possible. After fog and stratus dissipate a warm southwest
flow and strong ridge aloft will continue to support very warm 
and dry conditions. A few degrees cooler at the beaches as the 
afternoon Atlantic sea breeze develops. Record high temperatures
look probable inland with max temps in the lower 90s, with a few 
mid 90s possible. 

.SHORT TERM...[Saturday night through Monday Night]...Late night
fog is possible again Saturday night and mainly over inland areas. 
Sfc ridge will drop a little further south as a weak cold front 
moves into GA on Sunday. The front has very limited moisture as it
moves slowly southeast into our southeast GA zones Sunday evening
and then into northeast FL by Monday morning. With mostly clear 
skies on Sunday, record highs possible again with southwest flow 
up to 10-15 mph. Continued hot inland on Monday as weak front has 
little effects. Onshore winds will keep areas near the coast a few
degrees cooler. 

.LONG TERM [Tuesday Through Friday]...Ridge to the south will 
weak be suppressed as upper shortwave trough and surface low 
pressure passes by to our north pushing a cold front across the 
area late Tuesday. Showers and thunderstorms will be possible 
during the afternoon and early evening hours. Dry weather is 
expected again Wednesday through Friday as surface ridge builds
in from the nw and flow aloft becomes more zonal. Above normal
temperatures on Tuesday will lower to near average levels behind
the frontal passage for Wednesday through Friday.

&&

.MARINE...High pressure ridge will be south of the waters through
the weekend. Winds will be mainly SSW with nocturnal surges to 15
to 20 knots(SCEC) mainly offshore. Winds will also shift to the 
se near the coast with the afternoon seabreeze formation through 
the weekend. Weak front will push across the waters Sunday night 
with a shift to the NE at light wind speeds on Monday. Winds will 
then return to a southerly flow on Tuesday ahead of the next 
frontal passage Tuesday night.

Rip Currents: Moderate Risk for NE FL with surf/breakers at 2-3 
ft, while Low Risk exists for SE GA with surf 1-2 ft. 

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...RH values are expected to bottom out in the mid 
30s inalnd the next couple of days and ERC values continue to 
rise. Winds also up to 10-15 mph at times through Sunday. These 
values are still short of red flag criteria so warnings are not 
warranted.

&&

.CLIMATE...

Record Max Temps for Fri 3/27 at local climate sites...
JAX 89/1991...GNV 91/1949...AMG 86/1994...SSI 88/2011...CRG 88/2011

All-time Record Highs for March at local climate sites... 
Jacksonville   91 F last set on 3-25-2020
Gainesville    96 F last set on 3-31-1907
Alma Georgia   91 F last set on 3-18-1963
St Simons Isld 90 F last set on 3-15-2020
Craig Exec Apt 90 F last set on 3-20-2003

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

AMG  63  90  63  90  65 /   0   0   0   0  10 
SSI  65  84  65  85  66 /   0   0   0  10  10 
JAX  64  93  64  93  66 /   0   0   0   0  10 
SGJ  66  88  65  89  65 /   0   0   0   0  10 
GNV  61  92  62  91  62 /   0   0  10   0  10 
OCF  61  93  62  92  62 /   0   0  10   0  10 

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&