394 
FXUS64 KFWD 262017
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
317 PM CDT Thu Mar 26 2020


.SHORT TERM... /Issued 153 PM CDT Thu Mar 26 2020/
/Rest of the day through Friday afternoon/

Another nice but warm afternoon is in the forecast for North and 
Central TX. Current forecast is in good shape for those upper 80s
and low 90s across most of the area. As of 1 pm, some locations 
across the northwest have already reached the 90 degree mark. We 
have seen an increase in cloud cover, mainly across Central TX, 
that might keep the temps a few degrees cooler than what the
current forecast show. For tonight, we will only drop into the 
60s with south winds 10-15 mph.

While the main system on Friday is still set to arrive later in the 
day, latest high-resolution models are trying to develop some 
isolated elevated convection as early as tomorrow afternoon. It 
appears that they are trying to erode the strong cap across west 
TX and into our western counties. Forecast soundings are showing 
good deep layer instability and lapse rates, but we have also 
noticed that the low-to-mid moisture is still questionable. Opted 
to mention low (20%) PoPs, mainly west of the I-35 and north of 
the I-20 after 1 pm to account this potential. We will continue to
monitor the trends and will make adjustment to the forecasts. As 
far as the high temperatures on Friday, we will be a few degrees 
cooler due to the increase in cloud coverage during the day.

Sanchez

&&

.LONG TERM... /NEW/
/Friday Night Onward/

A strong cyclone will emerge out of the Rockies late Friday 
night, moving east/northeast across Kansas. Much of the system’s
associated ascent will remain well north of our region, but a few
showers can’t be ruled out mainly across North Texas after 
midnight. This system will help drag a cold front through the 
region Saturday morning. The front will locally enhance forcing 
for ascent, with scattered showers and isolated storms possible 
mainly east of I-35. As the front approaches East Texas, it is 
possible that more robust convective potential develops given the 
increased amount of moisture in that area. No significant impacts 
are expected out east other than a brief burst of heavy rain. 
Given any shower and storm activity will move quickly, rainfall 
amounts will remain low. 

In the wake of the front, temperatures are expected to drop to 
around seasonal normals. Highs on Saturday are expected to be 
around 10 degrees cooler than Friday with breezy westerly winds in
place. Saturday night will likely be the coolest night of the 
week with lows in the mid to upper 40s west of I-35 and lower 50s 
elsewhere. Much of Sunday will remain precipitation free as the 
region continues to be influenced by the post-frontal dry air. 
This will change Sunday night as the next shortwave trough emerges
out of the Four Corners region. Low and mid level winds will 
quickly respond to the approaching system, allowing for a rapid 
return of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico. 

As warm air advection increase Sunday night, a few showers 
can’t be ruled out area wide and likely increase in coverage 
through Monday morning. By late morning and into the afternoon, 
enough instability will be in place for a few embedded 
thunderstorms to develop in the warm and humid air mass across 
North Texas. At this time, severe weather is not expected on 
Monday given the weak instability and lack of strong environmental shear.
Expected rainfall amounts will be closely monitored through the 
next few days as any heavy precipitation could potentially lead to
at least minor flooding. 

A cold front will rush from west to east Monday night as the main
upper level system pulls eastward. All precipitation will be 
ending from west to east through the night, likely exiting our 
eastern counties Tuesday morning. Dry conditions are then expected
to remain in place through the rest of the week with seasonal 
temperatures in place.

Hernandez

&&

.AVIATION... /Issued 153 PM CDT Thu Mar 26 2020/
/18z TAFs/

Concerns...None for the DFW Metroplex TAF sites. Ongoing MVFR cigs 
at ACT. Low potential for convection late Friday afternoon.

Another quiet day across the DFW Metroplex sites. VFR cigs will 
prevail with a mix of mid-to-high clouds through the rest of the 
day. South winds 10-15 kt and wind gust up to 20 kt will be 
possible. The low-cloud deck have managed to stay across Central TX 
since this morning. As of 18Z, the Waco TAF site continues to show 
MVFR cigs, but as seen by the visible satellite image, clouds 
have started to lift and scatter out. VFR cigs will likely return
within the next few hours.

For tonight, expect tranquil conditions across all TAF sites. The 
low-level jet will stay at around FL020 AGL, keeping the LLWS 
impacts to a minimum. However, the main concern into Friday 
morning will be the return of the low stratus deck into Central 
and East TX. Latest high-resolution models are in good agreement 
in keeping the moisture south and east of the DFW Metroplex 
sites. The NAM has been the outlier over the last couple of runs, 
as it brings MVFR cigs into these sites. For now, we are keeping 
an optimistic forecast and only introduced MVFR cigs to Waco at 
around 13Z. 

Regarding the convection potential Friday afternoon...some of the 
high resolution models are hinting at some isolated storms across 
parts of North Texas. If they are able to break the cap, it appears 
that areas to the northwest of the DFW TAF sites will have the best 
chance. No weather is mentioned on this set of TAFs, as the better 
chances don't arrive until late Friday night.

Sanchez

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    68  83  65  75  51 /   0  10  20   5   0 
Waco                66  84  65  76  49 /   0   5  20  20   0 
Paris               68  82  65  72  48 /   0   5  20  20   0 
Denton              67  83  62  74  48 /   0  10  30   5   0 
McKinney            68  81  64  74  48 /   0  10  20  10   0 
Dallas              68  84  65  75  51 /   0  10  20  10   0 
Terrell             67  84  65  75  49 /   0   5  20  20   0 
Corsicana           67  85  67  74  51 /   0   5  20  30   0 
Temple              66  85  65  76  49 /   0   0  20  20   0 
Mineral Wells       66  84  60  73  46 /   0  20  20   0   0 

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

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