617 
FXUS63 KMPX 232007
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
307 PM CDT Mon Mar 23 2020

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 300 PM CDT Mon Mar 23 2020

Main short term concern is the chance of light rain/drizzle
overnight into Tuesday. 

Clouds slow to erode over the southeast CWA. May see a little more
clearing on the northwest edge of the cloud deck, but will likely
remain cloudy over the southeast CWA overnight into most of
Tuesday. Low level flow will become more southerly overnight and
likely lift clouds ahead of the developing warm front over South
Dakota/Iowa overnight. Could see some drizzle over the far east
with a chance of light rain into the west later tonight as a weak
short wave moves in. 

This wave weakens as it moves east Tuesday. We should continue the
clouds most of the day with some warming expected. Trimmed high a
degree or two from NBM but may still be too warm, especially if we
stay totally cloud Tuesday. 

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 300 PM CDT Mon Mar 23 2020

Models drive a stronger wave with some layered FGEN as the cold
front moves across the Wednesday/Wednesday night. Trimmed high a
bit to the west as rain changing to wet snow develops into
Wednesday afternoon. This spreads east into Wednesday night with
some minor accumulations possible over western Minnesota
Wednesday - perhaps an inch and over west central Wisconsin
Wednesday night - less than an inch. 

Following this front, we remain in a more split flow pattern aloft
with small chances from rain lifting north and east again later
Friday through Saturday. The deterministic models diverge on
handling the weekend system with the GFS holding onto more of the
split flow pattern with the system traveling mainly to the south
of the area. We will hold onto the NBM PoP forecast for now, with
the ECMWF quite bullish in its lifting the southwest wave over 
the western Great Lakes into Saturday with a potent storm.
Something to monitor this week.  

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1155 AM CDT Mon Mar 23 2020

Clearing/drying taking hold across central MN and dropping slowly
south this afternoon. May clear KMSP but may hold KEAU/KMKT this 
afternoon before lifting north with MVFR/IFR CIGS and some BR 
again overnight as low level flow become more SE-S. THis will 
continue into the morning as well, with CIGS gradually lifting but
should remain at least MVFR. Could see some -DZ/BR with the lower
CIGS, especially over the west later tonight. 

KMSP...Drying clearing from the north. Should become VFR by 20z. 
Then timing of lower clouds/MVFR CIGS/to the south will be the 
main concern tonight. Should move in this evening as flow becomes
more SE and maintain at least MVFR CIGS through Tuesday morning. 

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Tuesday night...MVFR possible late. Southwest wind less than 10 
kt. 
Wednesday...MVFR expected...IFR possible in the afternoon with a 
chance of rain. Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming northwest. 
Wednesday night...MVFR. North wind 5 to 10 kt. 
Thursday...VFR. Northeast wind around 5 kt. 
Thursday night...VFR.Variable wind less than 5 kt. 
Friday...VFR. Variable wind 5 kt or less.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...   
AVIATION...DWE