004 
FXUS63 KOAX 201137
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
637 AM CDT Fri Mar 20 2020

...Updated Aviation Forecast Discussion...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 338 AM CDT Fri Mar 20 2020

.Summary:

Cold today, then gradually warming through the weekend. Off and on
precipitation chances will remain in the forecast through the 
upcoming week. Currently, it appears that the best chance of 
measurable rainfall will be Monday night into Tuesday morning when
showers and a few thunderstorms are likely.

.Today and Tonight:

A shortwave trough over the mid MO Valley is in the process of
deamplifying early this morning, and this has resulted in the
rapid decay of a deformation snowband over portions of eastern NE
and southwest IA. As a result, we will likely be able to cancel
the ongoing winter weather advisory prior to its 7 AM expiration.
Otherwise, strong northwest winds are expected to steadily
diminish today as surface high pressure builds into the area.
Despite decreasing clouds, the intrusion of an arctic air mass 
will result in well-below-normal high temperatures in the mid 20s 
to mid 30s.

Low temperatures tonight may occur by late evening owing to the 
proximity of the surface high and initially mostly clear skies. 
Overnight, winds will increase from the south and clouds will 
increase with temperatures remaining steady or rising slightly.

.Saturday and Sunday:

A deepening lee trough over the High Plains will support a warmer
pattern over the central Plains on Saturday with highs bouncing
back into the 40s with breezy south winds. On Saturday night into
Sunday, a shortwave trough will emerge from the Rockies and pass
to our immediate south, supporting a chance of light precipitation 
over portions of southeast NE and southwest IA. A rain-snow mix
appears probable with some light (i.e., less than 0.5")
accumulations possible. Highs on Sunday will be mainly in the mid
to upper 40s.

.Monday and Tuesday: 

A vigorous shortwave trough is forecast to track through the 
central Plains on Monday night into Tuesday, supporting another
measurable precipitation event. Predominant precipitation type
will likely be showers with a few thunderstorms possible. High
temperatures will be mainly in the 50s.

.Wednesday and Thursday:

Precipitation chances remain in the forecast through the middle of
the upcoming week in association with a weak shortwave trough 
traversing the northern Plains. While we will indicate high 
temperatures in the 50s and 60s, there is some signal in model 
data that a front could move into the area from the north. In that
scenario, cooler temperatures could be expected.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 629 AM CDT Fri Mar 20 2020

The weather has improved drastically over the last 6 hours with
dry weather and VFR conditions now prevailing over the entire 
region. Gusty north winds are the one hazard we will still need 
content with this morning. Though the overall trend in winds 
speeds continues to be downward, sustained winds of 15-25 kt and 
gusts to 25-35 kt will remain possible through 18Z Today. Winds 
should be most impactful at KOMA and KLNK. After 18Z winds will 
decrease and become light and variable by 03Z Saturday. No 
weather related aviation hazards are anticipated between 18Z 
today and 12Z Saturday.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Mead
AVIATION...Albright