833 
FXUS64 KMOB 190011 AAA
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Mobile AL
711 PM CDT Wed Mar 18 2020

.AVIATION...
00Z issuance...VFR conditions through 19.08z followed by possible
IFR to LIFR cigs and visibilities through about 19.12z improving
to MVFR cigs through 19.15z then MVFR to VFR cigs through 20.00z.
Winds will be southeast at 6 to 10 knots early this evening 
diminishing to 5 knots or less through about 19.15z increasing to
6 to 12 knots through 20.00z. 32/ee 

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 359 PM CDT Wed Mar 18 2020/ 

NEAR TERM UPDATE /Now Through Thursday/...A deep southwesterly wind flow 
will remain over the region tonight and persist through Thursday 
ahead of an upper level trough over the western conus. This flow 
will keep a mix of low and high clouds over the region. A surface 
ridge of high pressure extending along the eastern seaboard to the 
northeast Gulf of Mexico will shift from the western Atlantic 
westward across the Deep South and northern Gulf of Mexico, 
maintaining a light, moist southerly low level wind flow. The 
convection late this afternoon should quickly diminish with loss of 
daytime heating, so have kept the forecast dry for tonight. Aside 
from a few light rain showers developing across the northwest 
portion of our forecast area on Thursday, dry conditions will 
persist through the remainder of the near term. Fog development 
remains favorable tonight with locally dense fog possible. Lows are 
forecast to be in the low to mid 60s tonight. High temperatures 
Thursday will be in the low to mid 80s inland area, with upper 70s 
along the coast. /22

SHORT TERM /Thursday night Through Saturday night/...The rain
returns to the area over the short term as the dominant upper 
ridge weakens and retreats back to the west. A strong upper 
shortwave will eject out of the central plains into the great 
lakes region Thursday into Friday allowing for a surface front to 
move towards our area. Rain chances will increase ahead of the 
front beginning across our northwestern areas and slowly 
progressing southeastward. With the upper trough quickly moving 
off to the northeast, the front will likely loose its push as 
upper flow becomes more zonal. The front will likely stall over 
our area early Saturday morning. How far south the front will make
it will be determined by how strong the surface high behind the 
front will be and how quickly the upper trough departs the area. 

The location of the front will have a big play on where the best
rain chances area and if some areas see a little relief from the
warmer temperatures. It appears that guidance has come into
agreement that the front will at least making it to the I-65
corridor and the best chances along and north of I-65. CAPE
appears to be limited and with the forcing displaced well off to
the north, severe storms don't seem likely but a few rumbles of
thunder cannot be ruled out. 

Temperatures will vary from northwest to southeast with mid 60s
behind the front and mid to upper 70s southeast of the front. With
the continued southerly flow, a high risk of rip currents will
occur Thursday and Friday. BB/03

EXTENDED TERM /Sunday Through Wednesday/...Rain chances will
continue into the weekend as the weak boundary lingers across our
area. The best rain chances will be centered around the stalled
boundary as the northern stream remains active through the 
beginning of next week. With zonal flow aloft and rather weak 
advection, the boundary will not move much until the middle of 
next week. By Wednesday and Thursday, the upper ridge will begin 
to restrengthen and nose into the central Gulf again. This is all 
in response to a deep upper trough digging into CA/NV. As the 
ridge builds, the surface front will likely move back northward 
and rain chances will decrease as we head into the second half of
next week. 

Temperatures will remain in the mid to upper 70s with some 80s as
the "cooler" temperatures behind the boundary moderate throughout
the week. We could see a solid warm up into the 80s by the end of
the period with the upper ridge beginning to build over the area.
Lows will also remain mild with continued low-level moisture
moving into the area. BB/03

MARINE...A surface ridge along the East Coast will bring light to 
occasionaly moderate southeast to south winds through the rest of 
the week. A weak cold front will cross area waters Friday night into 
Saturday before stalling, bringing a light to occasionally moderate 
offshore flow Saturday into Saturday night. The surface ridge will 
reassert itself Sunday into Sunday night, with general onshore flow 
returning Sunday night into Monday. /22

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...High Rip Current Risk from 6 AM CDT Thursday through late Friday 
     night for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk from 6 AM CDT Thursday through late Friday 
     night for FLZ202-204-206.

MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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