854 
FXUS64 KMAF 161720
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1220 PM CDT Mon Mar 16 2020

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Satellite shows low clouds are eroding on the wrn edge and 
clearing line is nearing CNM/FST. Elsewhere CIGS will lift into 
MVFR before returning to IFR tonight after 06Z. For now we will 
down play fog in TAFs, except HOB. Also included a PROB30 TSRA at
FST after 03Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 603 AM CDT Mon Mar 16 2020/ 

DISCUSSION...

Please see the 12z aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...

Widespread LIFR conditions this morning, mainly from low cigs.
Winds this evening have stayed up enough to mitigate FG, but some
FG will be possible at KMAF/KHOB this morning as winds die down.
Ceilings will slowly recover at all terminals beyond 15z, but MVFR
cigs expected to hold at KMAF while remainder of sites bounce back
to VFR in the afternoon. Cigs return the following evening with
MVFR/IFR forecast for most terminals. 

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 351 AM CDT Mon Mar 16 2020/ 

DISCUSSION...
Upper low off Nrn CA this morning will wobble down the coast today 
and Tuesday reaching Baja Wednesday.  With an upper ridge over the 
Gulf this will put the region in SW flow aloft and allow shortwaves 
to track up across the area.  This low will rotate across AZ and NM 
Thursday before lifting NE.  The next upper low will hit the NW 
coast Friday and weaken as it moves east but an upper trough 
extending southward from it will swing across the area Sunday.

Have had fog 3 nights in a row and already in the forecast for this 
morning but will add mention of patchy fog to the grids for early 
Tuesday morning across the Permian Basin.  So far this morning have 
more wind than past days that has helped to keep visibilities up 
even thought the airmass in near saturation.  

Lowered all temps east of the mtns today as expect clouds will hang 
in through most of the day.  As the frontal boundary lifts northward 
the wind should come back around to the south for the southern half 
of area but remain easterly across northern half as the boundary 
only makes it to the Permian Basin by 00z. Highs today in the 60s 
and 70s.  On Tuesday this front should lift nearly out of the CWA 
with a warmer day expected as readings in the 70s spread northward. 
Wednesday should be above normal too.  

There may be some storms today but overall this looks to be a down 
day.  Could see some morning storms over the Eastern Permian Basin 
and Lower Trans Pecos then during the late afternoon/early evening 
the chances shift southward to the Big Bend with a shortwave. 
Tuesday and Wednesday has a slight risk of severe storms over 
eastern half of the area along and ahead of a dryline.  Large hail 
and damaging wind will be the main concerns but a couple tornadoes 
will be possible each day.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     56  74  55  76 /  10  60  60  40 
Carlsbad                       50  76  52  70 /  10  20  20  50 
Dryden                         60  83  61  80 /  20  30  60  40 
Fort Stockton                  56  80  56  78 /  20  30  40  40 
Guadalupe Pass                 50  66  47  63 /  10  20  20  70 
Hobbs                          50  72  50  72 /  10  40  20  40 
Marfa                          44  76  45  71 /  10  10  40  40 
Midland Intl Airport           57  76  55  77 /  10  50  40  40 
Odessa                         56  76  55  77 /  10  40  40  40 
Wink                           56  79  54  78 /  10  30  30  40 

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$