487 
FXUS64 KMAF 160851
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
351 AM CDT Mon Mar 16 2020

.DISCUSSION...
Upper low off Nrn CA this morning will wobble down the coast today 
and Tuesday reaching Baja Wednesday.  With an upper ridge over the 
Gulf this will put the region in SW flow aloft and allow shortwaves 
to track up across the area.  This low will rotate across AZ and NM 
Thursday before lifting NE.  The next upper low will hit the NW 
coast Friday and weaken as it moves east but an upper trough 
extending southward from it will swing across the area Sunday.

Have had fog 3 nights in a row and already in the forecast for this 
morning but will add mention of patchy fog to the grids for early 
Tuesday morning across the Permian Basin.  So far this morning have 
more wind than past days that has helped to keep visibilities up 
even thought the airmass in near saturation.  

Lowered all temps east of the mtns today as expect clouds will hang 
in through most of the day.  As the frontal boundary lifts northward 
the wind should come back around to the south for the southern half 
of area but remain easterly across northern half as the boundary 
only makes it to the Permian Basin by 00z. Highs today in the 60s 
and 70s.  On Tuesday this front should lift nearly out of the CWA 
with a warmer day expected as readings in the 70s spread northward. 
Wednesday should be above normal too.  

There may be some storms today but overall this looks to be a down 
day.  Could see some morning storms over the Eastern Permian Basin 
and Lower Trans Pecos then during the late afternoon/early evening 
the chances shift southward to the Big Bend with a shortwave. 
Tuesday and Wednesday has a slight risk of severe storms over 
eastern half of the area along and ahead of a dryline.  Large hail 
and damaging wind will be the main concerns but a couple tornadoes 
will be possible each day.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     63  56  74  55 /  20  10  60  60 
Carlsbad                       71  50  76  52 /   0  10  20  20 
Dryden                         75  60  83  61 /  20  20  30  60 
Fort Stockton                  70  56  80  56 /  10  20  30  40 
Guadalupe Pass                 70  50  66  47 /   0  10  20  20 
Hobbs                          64  50  72  50 /  10  10  40  20 
Marfa                          74  44  76  45 /  10  10  10  40 
Midland Intl Airport           65  57  76  55 /  20  10  50  40 
Odessa                         65  56  76  55 /  20  10  40  40 
Wink                           68  56  79  54 /  10  10  30  30 

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

87/72