386 
FXUS63 KMQT 150752
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
352 AM EDT Sun Mar 15 2020

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 251 PM EDT SAT MAR 14 2020

Quiet weekend continues with high pressure to the north mostly in 
control. North flow on its southern periphery, coupled with 
marginally cold enough air aloft, have kept much of Upper Michigan 
under lake-effect clouds today, but visible satellite shows that 
cloud cover beginning to erode, especially over the eastern U.P. 
Expect that as heights continue to rise and subsidence continues, 
these clouds will continue to clear out, hanging on the longest over 
the higher terrain of western Upper Michigan where the upslope 
nature of the flow will keep enough moisture around longer. With 
winds also going very light tonight, expecting a cold night - even 
with the snow cover being as wet/crusty/brown as it is. Went with 
the 25ht percentile for low temps and then adjusted temps down even 
further over the notoriously cold spots of the interior east where 
they should be cloud-free all night. This gives lows in the teens 
along the lakeshores and single digits interior, with lows possibly 
falling below 0 in just a few localized pockets of the interior 
east. With sunshine through at least midday on Sunday, temps should 
rebound back into the low to mid 30s for highs, coolest along the 
lakeshores.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 352 AM EDT SUN MAR 15 2020

Northern stream disturbance will push into far northern Ontario on 
Monday pushing a cold front southward across Lake Superior and the 
U.P. by Monday evening. The best dynamics will remain north of Lake 
Superior and there will be limited moisture to work with. However, 
broad warm advection through the day Monday should produce some on 
and off light precipitation across the area. Most of the 
precipitation will fall in the form of light snow but as low level 
temperatures climb above freezing by late morning...a light 
rain/snow mix will be possible through the afternoon. Total QPF 
amounts will be around a tenth of an inch or less of liquid.  Any 
snow accumulations will be minimal. 

Once the cold front passes the area Monday evening, cold advection 
will push 85H temperatures into he -12 to -15C range by early 
Tuesday...marginal for some light lake effect snow showers in west 
northwest wind favored areas. Any accumulations will be light. It 
will be blustery and colder again on Tuesday with highs a few 
degrees below their mid March norms. 

Wednesday will be a dry and seasonable day.

Models continue to offer varying solutions for the end of the work 
week. The GFS brings together energy out of the Desert SW and 
northern stream energy to wind up a significant low that track 
through the western U.P. This would bring a surge of mild air to 
most of the area yielding a period of rain before colder air wraps 
in behind the low and transitions the rain to some snow for northern 
areas followed by lake effect snow. The Canadian and Euro maintain a 
dominant northern stream and bring a period of cold advection lake 
effect for Thursday night into Friday with much less of a signal of 
a wound up surface low. Trends through much of this winter have been 
for surface lows to track further south as events get closer. Will 
monitor for that trend over the next day or two. Regardless...it 
will be cold and blustery on Friday with a chilly, tranquil weekend 
expected next weekend.
&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 127 AM EDT SUN MAR 15 2020

Diminishing north winds and high pressure with drier air building 
into the area will result in gradually clearing skies this evening. 
Clouds are more likely to hang on longer at SAW so have their TAF 
tapered down from BKN to SCT this evening but MVFR cigs may linger 
into the overnight. No vis or wind concerns this TAF period.
&&

.MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 251 PM EDT SAT MAR 14 2020

Light winds expected across the lake tonight through Monday morning. 
SW winds still expected to increase to 25-30 kts west and 20-25 kts 
east ahead of a cold front. Cold front clears Tuesday morning with a 
good chance of NW gales behind it on Tuesday. After that, next 
period to watch for potentially stronger winds is Thursday night into 
Friday when NE winds could increase to 25-30 kts as a low pressure 
system passes by to the south, and potentially stronger depending on 
the exact track of the low.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RJC
LONG TERM...MZ
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...RJC