502 
FXUS63 KMPX 142003
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
303 PM CDT Sat Mar 14 2020

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 303 PM CDT Sat Mar 14 2020

Very dry layer of air between h85 and h7 on the 12z MPX sounding 
kept precip that fell across southern in the afternoon as mainly 
virga, with nothing more than some flurries noted at a couple of 
locations. Satellite imagery this afternoon shows the accumulating 
snow was not far from the MPX CWA, getting as far northeast as about 
a line from Brookings, SD to Slayton and Worthington in SW MN. Skies 
have been clearing pretty quick behind this system, but temperatures 
have been slow to respond thanks to CAA with the northeast winds, 
with highs today expected to come in around 4 degrees cooler than 
what was forecast this morning. Tonight, skies will remain mainly 
clear, so it will be another cool evening, though given the lack of 
snow cover and the significantly degraded state of the snow that 
remains in central MN, kept lows near the median, which is right 
near climatology.

For Sunday into Sunday night, we'll see shortwave energy slide 
across the international border. We continue to see models generate 
a band of snow with this feature, but the trend through Sunday night 
has been for this snow to fall a little farther north, near the US-2 
corridor in northern MN. As a result, we now keep our area dry 
through the day on Sunday, with the southward progression on Sunday 
night delayed. Once again, our biggest issue will be an antecedent 
environment that will be lacking moisture, though models are more 
optimistic on the low levels moistening up this time around, though 
not until after 6z Monday across central MN and deeper into the day 
on Monday farther to the south and east. Any precip we do see Sunday 
night, it will be cold enough to support a p-type of snow.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 303 PM CDT Sat Mar 14 2020

The extended period will be marked by two storm systems, one weak 
and another fairly potent depending upon phasing of the northern 
and southern jets. 

The long wave trough across the western CONUS will remain 
throughout the extended period with subtle northern wave energy 
moving southeast along the Canadian border. As with any model, 
phasing of the jets remains problematic in terms of upper level 
energy and overall placement of the QPF. This is no different for 
Monday's and later in the week system. 

First, models are fairly consistent with most of the upper level 
energy with Monday's system across the deep south. Thus, most of the 
QPF with Monday's system will be related with warm air advection 
ahead of the cold front. Although both the EC/GFS are consistent 
with low QPF amounts on Monday, there are differences in the 
placement of the QPF and likely due to the biases of wetter GFS. 
However, it still looks like higher percentages are still warranted 
in the northeastern forecast area, mainly over east central 
Minnesota and west central Wisconsin. Based on temperatures, any 
snow that falls early will be light and not impactful. 

The storm system for late in the week remains on track to be 
impactful based on lots of QPF and a band of heavy snowfall on 
the northwest/cold side of the surface low track. There has been a
trend for the southern stream short wave to be quicker and less 
amplified for this storm. This has made more forecast 
uncertainties on the amount of QPF (duration) and the phasing 
between the jets. Both the GFS/GEM have continued the trend of a 
large area of QPF across southern Minnesota, and into northwest 
Wisconsin from Thursday and into Friday. The EC has downplayed 
and shifted the higher QPF amounts to the south of Minnesota. The 
southern shift of the EC is related to less interaction of the 
northern jet until later in the storm's evolution. What is more 
certain is the onset of precipitation looks to be liquid based on 
warmer temperatures aloft. 

The best forecast is too remain cautious that a large storm system 
could affect the Upper Midwest late next week, and the possibility 
of heavy snow remains questionable. Timing and precipitation amounts 
will continue to be sporadic which leads to an uncertain forecast. 
Temperatures will likely remain near normal with highs in the 
30s/40s, with overnight lows in the 20s/30s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1224 PM CDT Sat Mar 14 2020

Skies will slowly clear this afternoon as system that went across
IA heads into the Great Lakes. Mid level clouds will increase on
Sunday as shortwave energy goes across the international border.
We'll keep VFR conditions with NE winds today that will become SE
Sunday.

KMSP...No additional concerns

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Mon...MVFR. Chc -RA/-SN and IFR. Wind SW bcmg NW 10-15 kts. 
Tue...VFR. Wind NNW 5-10 kts. 
Wed...Chc MVFR/-RA. Wind SE 10-15 kts.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...JLT
AVIATION...MPG