317 
FNUS74 KMAF 041415
FWSMAF

Spot Forecast for Longfellow Nine Mile Complex...Texas A&M Forest Service
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
815 AM CST Wed Mar 4 2020

Forecast is based on forecast start time of 0900 CST on March 04. 
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...

Rain chances are in the forecast today as an upper low progresses
over the Permian Basin. An associated cold front will sweep across
the burn site this morning, resulting in an abrupt wind shift to
the north and an increase in 20 foot winds to over 20 mph with gusts
near 30 mph possible. Isolated thunderstorms are also possible, and
occasional lightning strikes in and near any thunderstorm are likely.
Gusty and erratic winds in and near thunderstorms are also likely.
Winds will lie down after sunset with very good RH recovery. Thursday
looks to be quiet with west winds under 10 mph becoming light and
variable during the late morning hours.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (60-70 percent). Isolated 
                    thunderstorms late in the morning. Scattered 
                    showers through the day. Isolated thunderstorms 
                    late in the afternoon. 
LAL.................1-8 strikes until 1200, then No Tstms until 
                    1500, then 1-8 strikes. 
Max temperature.....Around 51. 
Min humidity........63 percent. 
Wind (20 ft)........Breezy. Winds becoming north 21 to 26 mph. Gusts
                    up to 31 mph increasing to 38 mph late in the 
                    afternoon. Gusty and erratic winds expected 
                    near thunderstorms. 
Mixing height.......5400 ft AGL. 
Transport winds.....North around 30 mph. 
Haines Index........2 to 3 or very low potential for large plume 
                    dominated fire growth. 
Chance of pcpn......40 percent. 

TIME (CST)      9 AM   11 AM  1 PM   3 PM   5 PM   
Sky cover.......PCLDY  MCLDY  MCLDY  MCLDY  MCLDY  
Weather cov.....SCTTRD SCTTRD SCTTRD SCTTRD SCTTRD 
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR 
Tstm cov........ISOLTD ISOLTD        ISOLTD ISOLTD 
Chc of pcpn (%).40     40     40     30     30     
LAL.............2      2      2      2      2      
Temp............47     50     51     49     48     
RH..............76     66     63     71     68     
20 FT wind dir..W      NW     N      N      N      
20 FT wind spd..10     20     23     26     25     
20 FT wind gust.       22     25     30     29     
Mix hgt (ft)....2600   4900   4700   2500   2000   
Transp wind dir.NW     NW     NW     N      N      
Transp wind spd.23     17     20     31     30     
Haines index....3      3      2      2      2      

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (60-70 percent) then becoming 
                    partly cloudy (25-35 percent). Isolated showers 
                    in the evening. 
LAL.................No Tstms. 
Min temperature.....Around 38. 
Max humidity........79 percent. 
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds 6 to 11 mph. 
Mixing height.......0 ft AGL. 
Transport winds.....Northwest around 9 mph. 
Haines Index........2 to 4 or very low to low potential for large 
                    plume dominated fire growth. 
Chance of pcpn......10 percent. 

TIME (CST)      6 PM      9 PM      MIDNGT    3 AM      
Sky cover.......MCLDY     PCLDY     MCLEAR    MCLEAR    
Weather cov.....ISOLTD                                  
Weather type....RNSHWR    NONE      NONE      NONE      
Tstm cov........                                        
Chc of pcpn (%).10        0         0         0         
LAL.............1         1         1         1         
Temp............47        43        41        39        
RH..............71        79        79        79        
20 FT wind dir..N         N         NW        NW        
20 FT wind spd..23        17        12        10        
20 FT wind gust.24                                      
Mix hgt (ft)....1900      1400      900       100       
Transp wind dir.N         N         NW        W         
Transp wind spd.28        17        15        8         
Haines index....2         2         2         4         

.THURSDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (0-5 percent). 
LAL.................No Tstms. 
Max temperature.....Around 68. 
Min humidity........17 percent. 
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 6 to 11 mph early in the morning 
                    becoming light and variable, then becoming east 
                    5 to 10 mph late in the afternoon. 
Mixing height.......4500 ft AGL. 
Transport winds.....Northwest around 4 mph shifting to the east 
                    around 8 mph late in the afternoon. 
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated 
                    fire growth. 
Chance of pcpn......0 percent. 

TIME (CST)      6 AM      9 AM      NOON      3 PM      
Sky cover.......CLEAR     CLEAR     CLEAR     CLEAR     
Weather cov.....                                        
Weather type....NONE      NONE      NONE      NONE      
Tstm cov........                                        
Chc of pcpn (%).0         0         0         0         
LAL.............1         1         1         1         
Temp............38        48        62        68        
RH..............76        51        25        17        
20 FT wind dir..W         W         SW        E         
20 FT wind spd..11        8         3         8         
20 FT wind gust.                    4                   
Mix hgt (ft)....100       600       3000      4400      
Transp wind dir.W         W         NW        E         
Transp wind spd.8         6         2         6         
Haines index....4         4         4         4         

$$
Forecaster...Curran
Requested by...Kasie Wagenfehr
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2003453.6/MAF
.DELDT 03/04/20
.FormatterVersion 1.0.26