789 
FXUS63 KIND 021716
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1216 PM EST Mon Mar 2 2020

.UPDATE...
The AVIATION Section has been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 250 AM EST Mon Mar 2 2020 

A cold front and an area of low pressure will keep rain chances in 
the forecast into Tuesday. Otherwise generally dry weather can be 
expected into the weekend. Temperatures will continue to be above 
normal for much of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(Rest of Today)
Issued at 1015 AM EST Mon Mar 2 2020 

Rain has moved east a bit faster than going forecast, so increased 
the speed of exit out of the western and central counties this 
morning. Across the south and east, though, made no appreciable 
adjustments as the previous thoughts of some scattered development 
ahead of the slow moving cold front during the afternoon still looks 
reasonable. Made some other adjustments to dew point temperatures to 
increase them this morning across the northwest. Also pushed back 
timing of the clearing behind the front a bit based on satellite 
loop. Previous discussion follows...

The cold front will continue to slowly move southeast through the 
area today. Some additional rain may develop ahead of it this 
afternoon, so will keep some PoPs going in the southeast half of the 
area this afternoon.

Some partial clearing will occur today, mainly behind the front as 
some drier air works in.

Temperatures will remain above normal today. 

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 250 AM EST Mon Mar 2 2020 

Models are close enough that the National Blend of Models
initialization was accepted for most items.

Tonight, another upper trough will approach the area from the 
northwest. This will interact with the surface front, by then 
southeast of the area, and produce a surface low. The low will move 
northeast along the front and bring more chances for rain to the 
area. 

At the moment, it looks like rain chances will be confined to the 
southern half of the area, closer to the surface low and the better 
moisture. However, with the best forcing remaining south of the 
area, will keep PoPs in chance category or lower.

Some lingering rain may be across the southeast early on Tuesday, 
otherwise dry conditions will prevail. An upper wave will bring some 
clouds on Wednesday, but it looks like there won't be enough 
moisture for any precipitation.

NBM tries to bring in rain late Wednesday night from an upper system 
well to the south, but this looks overdone given how far south the 
system is. Continued with a dry forecast.

NBM temperatures look reasonable for the most part.

&&

.LONG TERM /Thursday through Sunday Night/...

Issued at 306 AM EST Mon Mar 2 2020

Current synoptic setup for Thursday shows central Indiana
in between systems to the north and south. Confidence has now
increased high enough to omit precipitation chances across the
southern counties due to the system over the Deep South. However,
slight chance pops have now been included over the northern
portions of central Indiana as a Great Lakes low skims the
forecast area from that side. With temperatures in the 50s on 
Thursday, precipitation will definitely be in the form of rain. 
However, as temperatures fall into the low to mid 30s on Thursday 
night, a few snow showers will mix in with the rain showers over 
the far east/northeast counties where some moisture will linger. 

As a large ridge of high pressure strengthens over the central U.S.
by Friday, the forecast will trend toward dry for the weekend.
After a brief dip into the low to upper 40s on Friday,
temperatures will once again climb over the weekend and back into
the 50s by Sunday. After that, the next chance of rain will be on
Sunday night with the next system. 

&&

.AVIATION /Discussion for 021800z TAF issuance/...

Issued at 1215 PM EST Mon Mar 2 2020

IFR conditions will improve over the next several hours from
northwest to southeast as visibilities and ceilings improve with
the cold front moving southeast through the area and improvement
in its wake. Some patchy drizzle at KBMG and KIND should end over
the next couple of hours as well. At KBMG, may see IFR to MVFR
ceiling hang around into the night as the cold front stalls south
of the area and ceilings remain. Could see more rain develop
overnight at KBMG as a wave moves along the stalling front, but
think this will stay south of the other sites. The lower ceilings
may move back in at KIND/KHUF during that time as well, but lower
confidence for those sites. Winds will shift to northwesterly over
the next couple of hours and then become more light and variable
overnight, and then more westerly on Tuesday.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch until 3 PM EST this afternoon for INZ064.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50 
NEAR TERM...50/CP 
SHORT TERM...50 
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...CP