637 
FXUS63 KIND 292008
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
306 PM EST Sat Feb 29 2020

.UPDATE... The SYNOPSIS, NEAR TERM, and SHORT TERM sections have 
been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 306 PM EST Sat Feb 29 2020 

Dry weather will continue through Sunday under the influence of high 
pressure. A warm front will move through Sunday allowing the 
temperature to climb to well above normal. Then, rain will move in 
Sunday night as moisture increases ahead of a cold front and upper 
wave of low pressure move across. Rain chances and above normal 
temperatures will continue over all or parts of central Indiana 
through late next week. 

Dry weather will return next weekend as high pressure builds in.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(Tonight and Sunday)
Issued at 306 PM EST Sat Feb 29 2020 

Surface high pressure will move from the Ohio Valley and the South 
to the southeastern states tonight. Rh time sections and satellite 
suggest only an increase in mid and high clouds. Then, low clouds 
will start moving in on Sunday as return flow commences on the back 
side of the departing high and a warm front moves through. Much 
warmer temperatures will move in behind the front with well above 
normal highs in the 50s per the blend. Far southern counties could 
even see the lower 60s.

Overnight lows tonight will not be as cold as last night with the 
southerly inflow. Blend lows in the 20s look reasonable. 

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Sunday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 306 PM EST Sat Feb 29 2020 

Models in reasonable agreement that a cold front will drop southeast 
across central Indiana Monday and Monday night and an upper northern 
trough will approach late Tuesday. In addition, impulses will eject 
across the Ohio Valley from a southwestern upper low. The return 
flow ahead of these features will supply plenty of moisture for the 
synoptic features to key in on and will allow for widespread rain 
Sunday night into Monday. The rain will be moving out of 
northwestern sections in the wake of the cold front on Tuesday.

Would not be surprise to see a lightning strike or two over southern 
sections Sunday night and Monday per model most unstable CAPEs. 

Confidence is good in continued well above normal temperatures per 
the blend. 

&&

.LONG TERM /Tuesday through Saturday/...
Issued at 159 AM EST Sat Feb 29 2020

Long term period continues to look mild and wet, particularly mid
week. However, builder may be holding onto precip too long and too
far north given models continue to place axis of heaviest precip
well to our south. Will need to see if blend begins to catch up
with this trend in the next couple of runs.

Dry weather should return by Thursday night at the latest and
continue through the remainder of the long term. Temperatures will
cool a bit but remain above normal for the time of year.

&&

.AVIATION /Discussion for 291800z TAF issuance/...

Issued at 1205 PM EST Sat Feb 29 2020

VFR through the period. Clear skies for the rest of the day with
winds shifting from westerly to southwesterly this evening and
then southerly overnight. A southwesterly low level jet will
overspread the sites by midmorning on Sunday bringing low level
wind shear and some surface wind gusts. Expect to see a big 
increase in cloud cover Sunday afternoon.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch through Monday afternoon for INZ064.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...MK
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM...Nield 
AVIATION...CP