487 
FNUS73 KLSX 220126
FWSLSX

Spot Forecast for Hawn Park West...MO DNR
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
726 PM CST Fri Feb 21 2020

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0600 CST on February 22. 
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the
National Weather Service.

.DISCUSSION...
Relative humidity values will fall through the morning, starting near 
50% at 6 am and falling to near 30% by the mid afternoon. Winds
will be decidedly southwesterly through the day. Clear skies and dry 
weather is expected through Saturday night. The next chance for 
widespread rain is on Sunday and Monday. 

.SATURDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (10-20 percent). 
Chance of pcpn......0 percent. 
LAL.................No Tstms. 
Temperature.........27 at ignition...Max 52. 
RH..................53 percent at ignition...Min 30 percent. 
Wind (20 ft)........Winds southwest at 6 mph at 
                    ignition...otherwise South winds 6 to 10 mph. 
Eye level winds.....1-2 mph at ignition using an adjustment factor of 0.2
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume 
                    dominated fire growth at ignition...max 5. 
Mixing height.......100 ft AGL at ignition...otherwise max 2400 ft 
                    AGL. 
Transport winds.....South 7 to 15 mph. 
Smoke dispersal.....Poor /90 m/s-m/ at ignition. Max...marginal 
                    /4840 m/s-m/. 

TIME (CST)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM   
Sky (%).........0      2      2      3      13     26     
Weather cov.....                                          
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   
Tstm cov........                                          
CWR.............0      0      0      0      0      0      
LAL.............1      1      1      1      1      1      
Temp............27     30     39     46     49     48     
RH..............53     51     39     32     30     35     
20 ft wind......SW 6   SW 8   SW 9   SW 9   SW 10  S 9    
20 ft wind gust.7      9      11     13     15     14     
Eye level wind..SW 3   SW 4   SW 4   SW 4   SW 5   S 4    
Eye lvl wnd gst.              5      6      7      6      
Mix hgt (kft)...0.1    0.4    1.1    2.0    2.2    1.6    
Transport wind..SW 7   SW 10  SW 12  SW 10  S 14   S 13   
Haines index....5      4      4      4      4      4      
Vrate kt-ft/1K..1      4      11     18     27     18     
Ventrate Cat....POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR   

.SATURDAY NIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (40-50 percent) then becoming 
                    mostly cloudy (45-55 percent) then becoming 
                    partly cloudy (40-50 percent) then becoming 
                    mostly cloudy (55-65 percent). 
Chance of pcpn......0 percent. 
LAL.................No Tstms. 
Temperature.........Min 34. 
RH..................Max 70 percent. 
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 6 to 8 mph. 
Eye level winds.....1-2 mph with an adjustment factor of 0.2.
Haines Index........2 to 4 or very low to low potential for large 
                    plume dominated fire growth. 
Mixing height.......Min 100 ft AGL. 
Transport winds.....Southwest 7 to 8 mph. 
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (130 m/s-m). 

$$

Forecaster...MRM
Requested by...Ron Colatskie
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2002703.0/LSX
.DELDT 02/21/20
.FormatterVersion 1.0.26