360 
FXUS64 KTSA 210504
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1104 PM CST Thu Feb 20 2020

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR conditions will prevail through the period, with wind speeds
mostly remaining below 10 knots.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 724 PM CST Thu Feb 20 2020/ 

UPDATE...

Overnight lows were adjusted downward in several locations. See
discussion below.

DISCUSSION...

Latest surface analysis places an elongated surface anticyclone
over the central part of the country, centered from the Quad
Cities southwest to Wichita. Models forecast this feature to sink
south overnight and by 12Z will be centered over the Ozarks and NE
OK. Satellite shows no hints of any high clouds, so skies will be
clear and a very favorable setup for max radiational cooling will
exist. As a result, will favor CONSMOS in this scenario which will
result in a drop in the low temp forecast at several locations.
Updated products have been sent.

Lacy

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 506 PM CST Thu Feb 20 2020/ 

DISCUSSION...
Skies will clear over the next couple of hours, with VFR
conditions prevailing through the period. North winds will quickly
become light and variable this evening, with a switch to light
south winds across NE OK by late Friday morning.

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 234 PM CST Thu Feb 20 2020/ 

DISCUSSION...
Cold/brisk conditions this afternoon as gusty north winds 
continue at 20 to 25 mph. Skies will generally clear from north 
to south this evening with decreasing winds as Arctic high pressure
builds directly over area by late tonight. With the light winds, 
clear skies and very dry airmass in place, temperatures are 
expected to fall into the teens Saturday morning in many areas
north of I-40.

Upper low, currently located off the west coast will move into the 
four corners region by Sunday morning, shifting ENE into the 
southern/central plains Sunday/Sunday night. Still some uncertainty 
concerning exact surface low track, which will be important, as the 
heavier precipitation will likely remain north of surface low/warm
front. Regardless, areas of light precipitation expected to develop
across NE OK ahead of system late Saturday night into Sunday morning
in region of stronger isentropic lift/WAA. Low level moisture will
remain limited ahead of dry line as surface low tracks across far
NE OK or SE KS with dew-points only climbing into the lower 50s. 
Mainly light to moderate rain showers are expected Sunday 
afternoon through the overnight hours ahead of main cold front, 
however an isolated thunderstorm or two can not be ruled out with 
CAPE values progged in the 200-500 J/KG range. Main precipitation
will shift east Sunday night, however a few lingering showers 
possible across NW AR Monday morning on backside of system.

Behind departing upper low, secondary clipper system will quickly 
dive southeast out of the northern Rockies and into the central 
plains with scattered precipitation potentially spreading into the 
area Tuesday into Tuesday night. Thermal profiles suggest temperatures
may be cold enough for rain and/or snow mix across NE OK/NW AR, 
depending on upper low track, which is obviously highly uncertain 
this far into the extended forecast.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   18  47  31  57 /   0   0   0   0 
FSM   21  47  27  55 /   0   0   0   0 
MLC   19  47  31  54 /   0   0   0   0 
BVO   10  46  29  57 /   0   0   0   0 
FYV   12  46  29  53 /   0   0   0   0 
BYV   14  45  27  53 /   0   0   0   0 
MKO   17  45  30  54 /   0   0   0   0 
MIO   13  45  28  54 /   0   0   0   0 
F10   18  47  31  56 /   0   0   0   0 
HHW   25  47  31  53 /   0   0   0   0 

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14