892 
FXUS64 KMAF 180955
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
355 AM CST Tue Feb 18 2020

.DISCUSSION...

The much advertised cold front continues to push through the
region  early this morning, and is currently nearing the Pecos 
River. The front will continue its southward progression through 
the day today, and should reach the Rio Grande by late this
afternoon. Cold advection in the wake of the front along with 
increasing cloud cover will yield much cooler temperatures, 
especially along/north of I-10, where highs in the upper 40s and 
50s will be nearly 30 degrees cooler than yesterday. Further
south, highs closer to the Rio Grande will reach the 70s to 
around 80 degrees, where the front moves through a bit closer to 
peak heating. Strong northeasterly gap winds are also expected 
through Guadalupe Pass beginning late this afternoon and 
continuing through Wednesday morning, so the High Wind Watch for
the Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains has been upgraded to a High 
Wind Warning. Northeasterly surface flow will provide continued 
cold advection through Thursday, yielding continued below normal 
temperatures with highs in the 40s and 50s Wednesday, and even 
some cooler highs in the upper 30s possible across northern zones 
on Thursday in response to a secondary push of colder air. 

Isentropic upglide will begin tonight, continuing in earnest 
Wednesday into Thursday, yielding increasing rain chances first 
across portions of the Rio Grande Valley and Stockton Plateau 
tonight, and expanding across much of the area Wednesday and 
Thursday. Model guidance has continued the trend of coming in 
warmer and drier, with the greatest QPF focused just east of the 
forecast area. Thus, the primary precipitation type is expected to
be a cold rain or drizzle, though across northern Lea county and 
portions of the northwestern Permian Basin where temperatures dip 
below freezing early Thursday, a rain/freezing rain mix may be 
possible. Rain chances will diminish through Thursday, though 
lingering light precipitation will be possible Thursday night, 
mainly along and south of I-10, with a wintry mix of rain, 
freezing rain, and sleet possible, particularly across the higher 
terrain. No accumulations are currently expected, and thus, 
impacts are expected to be fairly minimal.

Dry conditions return Friday, and after one more day of below
normal temperatures, a warming trend begins Saturday and 
continues into early next week. A shortwave ahead of an
approaching trough could yield some rain showers, mainly across
portions of Southeast New Mexico and the northern Permian Basin
Saturday into Saturday night, though models have been trending
drier, thus have maintained only slight chance mention. By 
Sunday, highs will reach into the 60s for most, while the
aforementioned trough moves out of the Rockies and lifts
northeastward across northeastern New Mexico toward the Central 
Plains. Given the northern trajectory of the trough, windy to 
very windy conditions may result across much of the area during 
the day on Sunday. Looking into early next week, Monday will see 
above normal temperatures in the middle 60s to middle 70s, with 
the potential for another wind event on Tuesday. However, GFS and 
ECMWF solutions remain out of phase, thus have not deviated much 
from the blended solution at this time. 

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     51  34  47  36 /  10   0  50  50 
Carlsbad                       54  34  48  34 /   0   0  10  10 
Dryden                         66  44  50  42 /  10  20  60  30 
Fort Stockton                  59  37  46  37 /   0   0  50  30 
Guadalupe Pass                 51  30  48  33 /   0   0  10   0 
Hobbs                          48  30  45  33 /   0   0  10  20 
Marfa                          63  34  51  36 /   0  10  30  10 
Midland Intl Airport           51  34  46  36 /   0   0  40  30 
Odessa                         49  34  45  36 /   0   0  40  30 
Wink                           54  37  47  36 /   0   0  30  20 

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...High Wind Warning from 5 PM this afternoon to 8 AM MST Wednesday 
     for Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains.

&&

$$

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