712 
FXUS61 KBGM 141812
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
112 PM EST Fri Feb 14 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Lake effect snow showers and flurries southeast of Lake Ontario
will taper off by this evening as high pressure moves into the 
area. Cold temperatures are expected through tonight as an 
arctic airmass will be in place over the area. Temperatures will
return closer to normal Saturday afternoon and back to above 
normal by Sunday as a southerly flow of air becomes well 
established. 

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Radar and satellite imagery shows continued lake effect clouds,
light snow showers and flurries downwind of Lake Ontario on a
low-level 310-320 degree flow pattern. KBGM VWP shows this flow
pattern between 1000 and 3000 feet AGL showing how shallow the
cold air mass is and of course how low the inversion is. This
was well modelled in the model soundings. The low-level flow 
will continue from the northwest and with temperatures at the 
top of the inversion around -18C to -20C and Lake Ontario 
temperatures around 6C this will lead to lake instability. 
Couple this with some Finger Lakes instability, clouds and 
light snow showers and flurries will continue into the hills of 
central NY much of the rest of the afternoon. The low-level flow
will back more to the west this evening as the upper level 
trough axis passes east and leads to large scale subsidence. 
This will allow the surface high to build across all of NY and 
PA by 12z. All the lake clouds should be gone and with clear 
skies, a very dry, cold air mass in the low-levels, temperatures
likely will fall below zero in most areas of central NY and the
colder rural areas of northeast PA. Some locations in north 
central NY likely will fall below -10F. With light winds there 
will be no wind chill issues. For Saturday, the surface high 
and low-level anticyclone move offshore and a southerly pressure
gradient picks up during the day as the next front moves into 
the upper Midwest. The winds at 850 mb will increase to around 
40 knots from the southwest by late afternoon. There will be 
strong warm air advection in the afternoon and evening but the 
lower atmosphere begins so dry that much of the day will be 
sunny. We expect some higher clouds late in the day and more 
seasonal temperatures.

For Saturday night, warm advection through a fairly deep layer
will lead to increasing cloud cover but with such dry air in the
low-levels we see chances for light snow showers only downwind
of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario collectively so we will have some
POPs to account for this in north central NY. Rest of area will
be mostly cloudy Saturday Night. 

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A weak cold front and associated upper short wave passes north 
of the region Saturday night into Sunday and will bring us the 
chance for some light snow showers, especially across our far
northern counties. Not expecting much moisture associated with
this disturbance, but up to an inch of snow will be possible
across Northern Oneida County and lesser amounts further south.

High pressure builds back into the region on Sunday night into
Monday and weather will quiet through the remainder of the
period.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High pressure shifts east of the area Monday night and our next
system tracks into the Great Lake by early Tuesday morning.
Models suggest that some cold air will be trapped at the surface
with warmer air pushing in aloft. This will be another set up
where we will likely see a mixed bag of precipitation across 
the region that eventually changes over to mostly rain by 
Tuesday afternoon. 

The aforementioned system is forecast to drag a cold front
across the area Tuesday night into Wednesday and precipitation
would likely transition back to snow as cold air advection takes
hold. Much colder by Wednesday, with lake effect snow showers 
in NW flow a possibility. By the end of the work week, most of 
the guidance is showing strong high pressure pushing over the 
Eastern CONUS and quiet conditions for our region.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Scattered to broken MVFR clouds will continue to affect KBGM 
and KITH this afternoon with patchy areas of IFR snow showers. 
We expect these lake effect clouds to last until evening while 
shifting north and affecting KSYR for a bit. Once the lake 
clouds move north of KSYR expect mainly SKC with VFR conditions 
all terminals. 

Winds will be northwest at around 10 knots with gusts close to
20 knots at times this afternoion and then light after sunset. 
Winds will turn south 5 to 10 knots late in the terminal period.

Outlook... 

Saturday afternoon...VFR. 

Sunday...Rain and snow showers, with possible restrictions.

Monday... Mainly VFR.

Tuesday...Restrictions possible in periods of rain and snow.

Wednesday...Restrictions possible in snow showers. 

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJN
NEAR TERM...DJN
SHORT TERM...MPK
LONG TERM...MPK
AVIATION...DJN