978 
FXUS62 KJAX 110458
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
1158 PM EST Mon Feb 10 2020

.AVIATION...
[Through 06Z Wednesday]
A moist southerly flow will result in IFR/MVFR conditions by 10z-12z
as low clouds and patchy fog form over the area. Slow improvement
to MVFR Tuesday morning by 14-15z and then VFR after 16z. SW winds
will increase to 21012g18kt by early afternoon.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [817 PM EST]...

.Near Term.../through Tonight/...

Surface high pressure ridge will move to the east through Tonight. 
This will continue the warm and moist southerly flow. Lows around 60
will be expected. Patchy to areas of fog expected to develop 
overnight, as low level moisture increases.


.Short Term.../Tuesday through Friday/...

High pressure ridge will sink to the southeast Tuesday, as a weak 
cold front moves into SE GA, where it is expected to stall and 
weaken. This boundary will produce a chance for showers Tuesday 
afternoon over SE GA, with a few thunderstorms possible. High 
pressure will build back across the area from the ridge to the east 
southeast Tuesday night through Wednesday. The high will sink back 
to the southeast again Wednesday night, as a cold front approaches 
from the northwest. Patchy to areas of fog expected Tuesday night 
and Wednesday night. The front is expected to cross the region 
Thursday afternoon into Thursday night. Showers and storms are 
expected to accompany this frontal passage. Strong storms can not 
be ruled out with this system, but the best dynamics will be well 
to the north by the time it crosses forecast area. Frontal timing 
differs in the longer range models, with GFS proposing a passage 
earlier on Thursday. The later the day the passage occurs the 
greater chance there will be for stronger storms due to better 
chance for heating. High pressure will build from the northwest 
Friday, but a slower frontal progression would lead to lingering 
showers into Friday. 

Temperatures will trend well above normal through Thursday, with 
near to slightly below normal readings expected Friday. With 
continued moist and warm advection pattern into Thursday, the 
potential for nightly fog will continue for Tuesday night and 
Wednesday night.


.Long Term.../Friday night through Monday/...

Strong high pressure will build to the northeast through Saturday 
and into Saturday night. This will lead to a fairly prolonged period
of elevated onshore flow. A coastal trough may develop in this flow 
which would enhance the flow. Temperatures will trend near normal 
through Saturday, with chance for coastal showers. The high will 
weaken and move toward the east Sunday. This pattern will yield a 
more southerly flow and temperatures moderating back above normal. A
weakening cold front will move southeast into the region Sunday 
night into Monday, with showers possible.


.Marine...

High pressure will be east southeast of the region through Wednesday
night. Sea fog will be a potential issue through Wednesday night, 
mainly during the overnight and early morning hours. A cold front 
will move southeast across area late Thursday into Thursday night. 
Strong high pressure will build to the northeast Friday night 
through Saturday night. This will yield a period of enhanced flow 
and elevated conditions for the weekend. 
 
Rip Currents...SE GA Moderate through Tonight, Low Tuesday
               NE FL Moderate risk through Tuesday

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

AMG  60  82  62  80  65 /   0  10  10  10  10 
SSI  61  75  61  74  64 /   0   0   0  10  10 
JAX  62  84  61  81  65 /   0   0   0  10  10 
SGJ  63  81  62  79  64 /   0   0   0  10  10 
GNV  61  83  61  82  63 /   0   0   0  10  10 
OCF  62  84  61  84  63 /   0   0   0  10  10 

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&