National Weather Service Text Product
AFOS product AFDFGF
Dates interpreted at 00:00 UTCDisplaying AFOS PIL: AFDFGF
Product Timestamp: 2020-01-29 12:38 UTC
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346 FXUS63 KFGF 291238 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 638 AM CST Wed Jan 29 2020 .UPDATE... Issued at 635 AM CST Wed Jan 29 2020 Light snow continues to spread into northeast North Dakota with snow being reported as far northwest as Brandon, MB. Latest RAP soundings showing ice in the cloud through late morning, when it begins to dry out while lower levels saturate. Adjusting hourly wx grids for all snow through 10 AM, transitioning back to freezing drizzle and/or snow by noontime. Fog has improved somewhat but HRRR vsbys had lower vsbys advecting in from west aft 12Z, so will keep headlines in tact. && .SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday) Issued at 304 AM CST Wed Jan 29 2020 Key forecast challenges this short term period will be dense fog west of the valley this morning and freezing drizzle potential across the north today. Travel-related impacts associated with dense fog can be expected west of the valley through noon, with the primary impact being visibilities less than one-quarter mile. A dense fog advisory has been issued for this impact. Today...Dense fog will gradually spread along and west of a Langdon to Havana line...with visibilities falling below one- quarter mile. Conditions will improve by late morning. Across the north (mainly north of Highway 2), an area of light snow or freezing drizzle will slowly move across northeastern North Dakota and northwest Minnesota, weakening and moving out of the are around 9 PM tonight. Soundings show significant dry air aloft, supporting light freezing drizzle, unless lift is enough to saturate the column into the dendritic zone. The first few observations reporting precipitation this morning have been light snow at Walhalla and Cavalier, so will continue to monitor for signs of freezing drizzle. There could be some slick areas across the northern valley and northwest Minnesota by late afternoon. Not confident either way (freezing drizzle vs. snow) so will continue the wintry mix messaging. Tonight...area of snow/freezing drizzle will weaken as upper wave translates east of the area by late evening, with mainly flurries or dry after midnight. Some patchy fog may develop east of the valley, but so far models not bringing fog back to the west Thursday morning. However, given the southerly flow and recent trends, not confident that fog will not present itself again late tonight into tomorrow morning. Thursday...Return flow strengthens and will mark the beginning of the advertised warming trend that will continue through the weekend. Daytime highs should reach the upper 20s for most of the area. .LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 304 AM CST Wed Jan 29 2020 Thursday night: We may have one more shot of light or non measurable precipitation Thursday night as a mid/upper trough passes over our region with closed center migrating over our CWA. Moisture advection is weak and while synoptic forcing will be present organized forcing seems to split around our CWA. Ensembles still hint at possible spotty/weak precip, however NBM has trended lower on measurable chances. Still, considering profiles either flurries or even a few pockets of freezing drizzle can't be ruled out. Not a lot of confidence considering trends, but we'll want to monitor in the event of light icing and potential travel impacts if/where precip sets up. Friday-Sunday: Ridging amplifies from the Pacific Northwest and Northern Rockies before sliding east and eventually transitioning to strong upper level westerly flow by Saturday night-Sunday. This pattern is much less favorable for any precip and current NBM/ensembles support dry conditions. This pattern does support both strong WAA aloft and anomalously warm temps in the 925-850 MB layer. GEFS mean continues to be warmer with its clustering, though it's mean is in line with ECMWF ensemble mean in general. It's going to be warmer and it appears likely we'll see most locations reach or exceeded freezing Saturday and Sunday, and it is certainly possible we may see locations reach 40. There is strong clustering in GEFS plumes towards widespread 40-42 for highs by Sunday, but these values will likely be conditional on sky cover, timing of an approaching arctic front, and may struggle in parts valley as we often see during winter time periods (terrain effects and snow cover). Monday-Wednesday: Arctic cold front passage is still expected to bring seasonal cold back into our region for early next week. The parent trough and cold front show good consensus between models on general pattern, however precipitation is still uncertain Mon-Mon night and NBM just barely introduces slight chance PoPs. Outliers still show potential for banded accumulating snow, but this is not in line with means and confidence is low that there will be any impactful weather during these periods. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning) Issued at 509 AM CST Wed Jan 29 2020 North Dakota sites...MVFR cigs this morning will trend toward IFR by 18Z and remain IFR through majority of 12Z TAF period. Areas of light snow or freezing drizzle possible around and north of DVL/GFK. Dense fog at airfields vcnty of DVL through 18Z. Southerly winds expected to shift to westerly component this afternoon. Minnesota sites...early morning VFR cigs will become MVFR by 18Z...remaining MVFR throughout the afternoon and become IFR after sunset. Areas of light snow and possibly freezing drizzle possible this afternoon. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...Dense Fog Advisory until noon CST today for NDZ006-007-014-015- 024-026-028-029-038-049-052-054. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...Speicher SHORT TERM...Speicher LONG TERM...DJR AVIATION...Speicher