146 
FXUS63 KOAX 281719
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1119 AM CST Tue Jan 28 2020

...Updated Aviation Forecast Discussion...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 316 AM CST Tue Jan 28 2020

Today and Tomorrow
Water vapor imagery shows an upper level shortwave moving across
the central Plains. The shortwave has 2 distinct sections. A
section farther south over Oklahoma and Texas with jet stream
support. Another section is over Nebraska and has much weaker 
forcing for lift. With weak lift and drier conditions, the
snowfall forecast for the area todays is for less than an inch. Amounts
may be higher in extreme southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa as
models indicate a higher band of frontogenesis values. Best 
chances for snow today will be from the late afternoon until 
midnight. Temperatures should be fairly similar today and tomorrow
as a layer of low clouds is expected to be over the area next 
couple of days. Highs should be in the low to mid 30s.

Thursday and Friday
Models indicate another similar pattern with split flow impacting
the area Thursday night. I have chosen to keep the forecast dry 
for that system as the atmosphere is already on the dry side and 
there isn't a chance to advect in any moisture between the two 
systems. The system will be worth monitoring to see if this system
can become more organized with stronger upper level support which
could lead to measurable precipitation. Thursday will be the 
start of gradual warming trend for the area. High temperatures 
will be in the upper 30s Thursday and the low 40s on Friday.

Saturday through Tuesday
It is shaping up to be a beautiful weekend as an upper level ridge 
is expected to move across the central portion of the US. High 
temperatures Sunday are forecasted to reach the high 50s for 
southeastern Nebraska. We tend to under-forecast temperatures in 
these situations (aging snow pack with ridging) so perhaps the 60s
may even be possible. A quick look at the grids shows a forecast 
of 70 in southwestern Nebraska. Enjoy the weekend, because long 
term guidance is indicating a strong system bringing in much 
colder air for a good portion of the Midwest. Low temperatures in
the middle of next week could be near 10.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1118 AM CST Tue Jan 28 2020

A shortwave trough over western parts of the Dakotas and NE as of
late morning will continue east through the mid MO Valley tonight.
An associated shield of mainly light snow across central NE will,
likewise, shift east into the area this afternoon and evening.
  
At KOFK, periodic light snow is expected this afternoon before 
becoming more continuous by early evening. As the snow diminishes 
overnight, patchy dense fog is possible. As a result, we expect 
prevailing IFR to LIFR conditions through much of the forecast 
period. 

At KOMA and KLNK, there could be a few hour window of MVFR
conditions this afternoon before ceilings and visibilities 
decrease this evening with the onset of light snow. The snow will 
continue into the early morning hours on Wednesday before 
diminishing. IFR to LIFR conditions will likely prevail tonight 
and Wednesday morning.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Fajman
AVIATION...Mead