206 
FXUS63 KBIS 272103
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
303 PM CST Mon Jan 27 2020

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 219 PM CST Mon Jan 27 2020

Concerns for the short term include persistent light fog tonight,
as well as the chance for snow tonight and Tuesday. 

While the low level cool air is in place, there has been little 
movement in the stratus and fog. We anticipate reduced
visibilities in fog again tonight most of the area as the
temperature and dewpoint spread decrease after sunset tonight.

Then, a trough of low pressure and associated warm front in
eastern Montana will move east through the state by Tuesday 
afternoon. Short term model consensus continues to show snow 
amounts less than an inch tonight and Tuesday. With overall weak 
forcing this seams reasonable. 
 

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 219 PM CST Mon Jan 27 2020

The main feature in the extended forecast continues to be milder
temperatures as a broad h500 ridge begins to dominate the weather
pattern by the end of this week into the weekend. The resultant 
chinook flow should help clear some of the cool, moist and stale
air that has given rise to the persistent stratus and fog. 

One concern in this pattern will be the strong gradient flow that
develops from h850 through h300 mb by the weekend. This could mix
down 40 to 50 kts winds to the surface this weekend resulting isn
some strong and gusty winds. 

Until then, there will be another weak shortwave trough Wednesday
night and Thursday, and this will bring a light mix of rain and 
snow with a brief period of freezing rain. 

Then by the weekend, with just moderate mixing, highs could reach
the 50s across the southwest, to the 30s and 40s central. With
good mixing maybe even a few degrees warmer. But again, moderate
to strong winds will accompany the warmup. 

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1220 PM CST Mon Jan 27 2020

Widespread stratus will remain in place across west and central
North Dakota through Tuesday. A trough of low pressure and
associated warm front in eastern Montana will move east. The
trough will be the focus for light snow tonight and Tuesday. We 
expect widespread IFR conditions to remain through Tuesday, with 
only short periods of MVFR Monday afternoon/evening.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...WAA