668 
FXUS63 KIND 271647
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1147 AM EST Mon Jan 27 2020

.UPDATE...
The AVIATION Section has been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 953 AM EST Mon Jan 27 2020

Dry weather is expected for much of the week with weak high pressure 
in place. Cloudy skies will continue through much of the week with 
slightly above average temperatures. An upper level low pressure 
system will be approaching the area this weekend with a mixture of 
rain and snow possible.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Rest of Today/...

Issued at 953 AM EST Mon Jan 27 2020

Any flurries/drizzle haven't been able to make it far enough off the 
lake to get into the forecast area, and viewing the radar mosaic and 
wind trajectories do not expect any of this to change. Therefore 
going with dry conditions through the remainder of the day today. 
Satellite loop indicates skies will stay cloudy through the day, and 
increased cloud cover overnight as well based on high resolution 
data and upstream observations. With all the clouds and 
northwesterly winds not expecting highs to get out of the 30s. 

&&

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Wednesday night/...

Issued at 257 AM EST Mon Jan 27 2020

Dry weather is expected for the short term period as weak surface
high pressure slowly moves through the area. An upper level low 
pressure system will move though the southern states Tuesday 
through Thursday with a subtle secondary wave that is forecast to 
move through Missouri into Kentucky during the day on Wednesday. 
This secondary wave will bring enough forcing to bring 
precipitation to northern Kentucky and southern Indiana, but is 
not currently expected to bring anything to central Indiana. The 
combination of weak upper level forcing and a lack of moisture due
to the stronger low cutting off any Gulf moisture gives medium to
high confidence in precipitation staying south of the forecast 
area. 

Temperatures will be near to above normal with highs in the mid to
upper 30s on Tuesday and Wednesday. Lows will fall into the upper
20s and lower 30s tonight through Wednesday night.

&&

.LONG TERM (Thursday Through Sunday)...
Issued at 215 AM EST Mon Jan 27 2020 

Models are close enough that the National Blend of Models 
initialization was accepted for most items.

High pressure will keep the weather quiet early in the long term 
period. However, an upper level trough and surface front will bring 
chances for precipitation around Saturday.

Of course this far out models have some differences in the specific 
timing, so for now just settled on Saturday when the most agreement 
occurs.

Dry conditions should return for Sunday behind the system.

Temperatures will be near normal to above normal through the period. 

&&

.AVIATION /Discussion for 271800z TAF issuance/...

Issued at 1142 AM EST Mon Jan 27 2020

Ceilings should continue to bounce between IFR and MVFR over the
next couple hours at the sites before getting solidly into low
MVFR. During the overnight hours, starting after around 6-8z,
expect ceilings to drop back down to IFR with pockets of LIFR
possible. Could see some MVFR visibilities after around 9-10z 
that hang around through mid morning. Winds will be light out of 
the northwest and become light and variable overnight. Could see 
some flurries sneak in to KLAF and perhaps KIND late overnight as 
well, but not confident enough to include.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...White/CP
NEAR TERM...White/CP
SHORT TERM...White
LONG TERM....50 
AVIATION...CP