876 
FXUS62 KJAX 190001
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
701 PM EST Sat Jan 18 2020

.AVIATION...
[Through 00Z Monday]

VFR still expected much of tonight ahead of the approaching cold
front. We do anticipate increased multilayered clouds through the
night, with winds becoming light southerly. 

HRRR and GFS guidance show precip moving into the TAF sites early
Sunday morning, and still expecting low cigs at MVFR to move in 
between about 11z and 16z, which may linger through the aftn 
hours. VCSH begins around 09z-10z, and showed TEMPO precip for 
showers during the 10z-18z time frame, varied based on TAF 
location. VCSH at times also after 18z mainly for GNV and SGJ. 
Still some potential for IFR cigs Sunday morning but not confident
in this at this time but indicated scattered clouds at 700-1000 
ft. A marginal case for LLWS ahead of the front with southwest 
winds at 1000-2000 ft approaching 35-40 kt. Winds on Sunday will 
be southwesterly 10-15 kt, becoming west and west-northwest around
10 kt and gusty in the late aftn and early evening.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [300 PM EST]...

.Near Term.../Through Tonight/...

High pressure to the east this afternoon, will move to the southeast
Tonight as a cold front approaches from the northwest. This front 
will reach SE GA by dawn. Scattered showers expected along the 
front, with a few showers ahead of it as well. Expect dry weather to
continue through around midnight, with chances then through the 
night. Temperatures will remain above normal Tonight.


.Short Term.../Sunday through Wednesday/...

The cold front is expected to move southeast across the region 
during the day Sunday. Scattered showers will accompany the frontal 
passage, and noticeably cooler air will arrive following passage. 
Due to the enhanced pressure gradient, winds will become gusty 
behind the front. Skies will clear Sunday night, as cooler air 
continues to filter in. Temperatures will fall to around freezing 
across inland SE GA, while holding in the lower to mid 40s near 
the coast. Strong high pressure will build from the northwest 
Monday through Monday night, then to the north Tuesday through 
Wednesday. This will be a cooler than normal period, with freezes 
inland Monday night and Tuesday night. As the high moves more to 
the north by Wednesday, the flow will become more onshore with the
potential for a coastal trough developing, with a few coastal 
showers becoming possible.


.Long Term.../Wednesday night through Saturday/...

High pressure will be centered to the north Wednesday night through 
Friday, then toward the northeast Friday night and east on Saturday.
Low pressure will move northeast out of the gulf across the region 
Friday night into Saturday. 

While the high is to the north Wednesday night through Friday, the 
largely onshore flow will continue, with weak coastal troughing. 
A chance for mainly coastal showers expected during this time. As 
the low lifts out of the gulf, shower chances will increase late 
Friday through Saturday. 

Temperatures will recover back to around normal Wednesday night 
through Thursday, then above normal Thursday night through Saturday.


.Marine...

High pressure will move southeast of the region through Tonight. A 
cold front will move southeast across the area Sunday, with strong 
high pressure building from the northwest Sunday night. High 
pressure will remain to the northwest through Tuesday, then to the 
north through Friday. 

Rip Currents: SE GA low risk Sunday
              NE FL moderate risk Sunday

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

AMG  60  64  32  50  29 /  40  50   0   0   0 
SSI  62  68  38  51  35 /  20  50   0   0   0 
JAX  62  71  37  55  34 /  20  40   0   0   0 
SGJ  63  75  40  56  39 /  10  40  10   0   0 
GNV  60  72  37  56  32 /  20  50   0   0   0 
OCF  60  72  38  58  33 /  10  50  10   0   0 

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk until 4 AM EST Sunday for Coastal Duval-
     Coastal Flagler-Coastal Nassau-Coastal St. Johns.

GA...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST Sunday for Waters from 
     Altamaha Sound GA to Fernandina Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-
     Waters from Fernandina Beach to St. Augustine FL from 20 to 
     60 NM-Waters from St. Augustine to Flagler Beach FL from 20 
     to 60 NM.

&&