625 
FXUS62 KJAX 101955
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
255 PM EST Fri Jan 10 2020

.Near Term.../Through Tonight/...

High pressure will build from the northeast to the east through 
Tonight. This will continue the moist onshore flow, and the 
potential for a few showers, mainly along the coast. Temperatures 
will continue to trend well above normal.  

&&

.Short Term.../Saturday through Tuesday/...

High pressure will be east of the region Saturday, as a weak warm 
front lifts north across the region and a cold front approaches from
the west. In the morning, the best chance for showers will be along 
the coast due to the moist onshore flow, while chances inland will 
increase in the afternoon due to the warm front. Models differ as to
how far the cold front will get before it weakens and stalls. The
high is expected to hold enough to keep the front from driving 
through the region, in addition the parent low goes well to the 
north, so the front will not have as much of a push. At this 
point, forecasting the weakening front to make it to the western 
edge of the forecast area Saturday evening and stall, then slowly 
move into SE GA during the night, where it will linger through 
much of the day Sunday, before lifting back to the north in the 
evening, as it dissipates. Best chance for showers with embedded 
thunderstorms will be over SE GA Saturday through Sunday. 
Potential for a few strong storms late Saturday afternoon and
evening far inland along and ahead of the front. 

High pressure ridge will remain to the east Monday through Tuesday, 
with the remnants of the front lifting just to the north of the 
forecast area. With the warm and moist flow continuing rain shower 
chances will continue. 

Temperatures will remain well above normal this period, with record 
highs possible Saturday and Sunday. 

&&

.Long Term.../Tuesday night through Friday/...

The high will move to the east southeast Tuesday night through 
Wednesday night, as a cold front approaches from the northwest. A 
strong high pressure area will build on the northwest side of this 
front, helping to push the front further into the 
forecast area Thursday and Thursday night, but the front may stall 
and linger into Friday. Will keep best precipitation chances 
across SE GA at this time, as it is uncertain as to whether the 
front will be able to push all the way through. 

Temperatures will continue to trend above normal this period.

&&

.Marine...

High pressure will move from the northeast to the east through 
Saturday. High pressure will continue to the east of the region 
Saturday night through Sunday, as a frontal boundary lays stalled 
just to the west of area waters. Patchy sea fog may become
possible Sunday afternoon into Monday, as winds decrease and the 
warm and moist air moves across relatively cooler coastal waters. 
The high will continue to the east as the boundary moves a little 
further to the northwest. A cold front will move southeast across 
area waters Thursday.

Rip Currents: Moderate Risk SE GA through Saturday
              High Risk NE FL through Saturday

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

AMG  63  79  65  76  63 /  10  20  40  40  20 
SSI  63  72  64  75  64 /  20  20  20  20  20 
JAX  64  81  66  81  64 /  10  20  20  10  20 
SGJ  67  79  65  79  64 /  20  20  10  10  20 
GNV  65  82  65  82  64 /  10  20  20  10  30 
OCF  65  83  65  83  64 /  10  20  10  20  30 

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for Coastal Duval-
     Coastal Flagler-Coastal Nassau-Coastal St. Johns.

GA...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory until noon EST Sunday for Waters from 
     Altamaha Sound GA to Fernandina Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-
     Waters from Fernandina Beach to St. Augustine FL from 20 to 
     60 NM-Waters from St. Augustine to Flagler Beach FL from 20 
     to 60 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 11 PM EST 
     Saturday for Coastal waters from St. Augustine to Flagler 
     Beach FL out 20 NM.

&&