National Weather Service Raw Text Product

508 
FXUS62 KJAX 050840
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
340 AM EST Sun Jan 5 2020

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

Low level ridging will continue to build eastward today, bringing in
a very cold and dry airmass over the southeastern U.S. Temperatures
around sunrise this morning will be mostly in the mid-upper 30s 
across SE GA and the Suwannee Valley, with temperatures around 40 
across north- central FL and the NE FL coastline. Though wind 
speeds will be weakening this morning, it will still be breezy 
enough to feel like about 3-5 degrees colder than the air 
temperatures. From there, things will warm up, but only to about 
55-60 degrees this afternoon despite clear skies. As the center of
the ridge makes it to the NWrn part of the FL Peninsula tonight, 
areas in the Suwannee Valley to drop to around 34-36 degrees, 
which could lead to patchy frost early Mon morning.

.SHORT TERM [Monday Through Tuesday night]...

High pressure will dominate the region on Monday and then begin 
to shift southeast of the area Monday night as a cold front 
approaches from the northwest. Winds will be light and skies 
mostly clear through Mon night. After a frosty morning Monday, 
temps will rebound to the mid and upper 60s as slight warm 
advection begins. Not as cold Monday night with slight veering of 
winds but still projecting lows in the 40s, with some upper 30s 
anticipated over inland northeast FL where winds will be a little 
lighter than over southeast GA. Tuesday, temps a bit warmer as the
front will allow a bit stronger southwest temp advection, and 
skies just mostly sunny to partly cloudy as moisture will be 
quite starved with this frontal system. Thus, keeping POPs at 10
percent or less. Frontal passage is during the aftn but cold 
advection generally does not get going until late aftn and 
overnight Tue night. For Tue night, a few clouds around in the 
evening but clearing expected. Turning chilly again Tue night with
lows in the mid-upper 30s Suwannee Valley and southeast GA, and 
around 40-45 elsewhere.

.LONG TERM [Wednesday Through Saturday]...

1030 mb high pressure system fcst to be centered over AL Wed morning,
which will shift east-northeast through Thu morning. Dry conditions
anticipated through early Thursday with low level winds veering 
as the high moves to the northeast of the region. Highs Wed fairly
close to normal in the 60s. Some easterly low level flow and a 
few clouds developing will result in low temps not quite as cold 
as Wed morning though still a few upper 30s and lower to mid 40s
expected. Weak coastal trough may develop offshore Wed night but 
do not anticipate any showers attm.

Thursday, airmass transition during this day as fairly strong 
high pressure shifts well northeast of the area and a storm 
system gathers strength over the central U.S. This system will 
allow for veered flow over the GOMEX and across the southeast U.S.
with isentropic ascent occurring and giving way to increased 
clouds and possible isold showers along the coast and marine 
zones. Temps rebound through the 70s most areas on increased 
southeasterly flow. 

Friday, temps continue to warm under veered flow from the south-
southeast with strong high pressure centered well to our northeast
and low pressure system developing over srn U.S. moving toward 
the lower MS Valley. A chance of showers expected as warm front 
lifts nwd over the area and moisture increases. Temps expected to
reach the 70s and possible lower 80s with peeks of sun through 
the day.

Next cold moves into the region for the weekend, but models disagree
with timing with the GFS some 12-24 hrs faster than the ECMWF. 
Given the disagreement and uncertainty, POPs are in the chance 
range for showers and leaning toward a slower frontal timing. 
Temps again will be warm on Saturday, in fact lower 80s possible.

&&

.AVIATION...
[Through 06Z Monday]

VFR conditions are expected through the period with unlimited cigs
and vsbys. Strong, gusty winds tonight will lower this morning,
becoming light and variable in the evening hours Sunday as the
center of low level high pressure moves over our area.

&&

.MARINE...

Winds and seas will subside today and tonight as a low level ridge
of high pressure approaches our coastal waters. This ridge will
slide offshore Monday night. By Tuesday night, weak cold front 
will cross our coastal waters, with another ridge of high pressure
moving in behind it on Wednesday. East-southeast winds will 
increase on Thursday ahead of yet another cold front. Small craft
advisory conditions will be possible.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Low RH today but bottom out in the lower to mid 30s. Even lower
for Monday with upper 20s over parts of northeast FL but no red
flags expected given other criteria not met. Dispersions also low
in northeast FL on Monday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

AMG  56  36  65  42  66 /   0   0   0   0  10 
SSI  55  42  63  45  66 /   0   0   0   0  10 
JAX  58  39  66  41  69 /   0   0   0   0  10 
SGJ  58  40  64  44  68 /   0   0   0   0   0 
GNV  59  36  66  39  69 /   0   0   0   0   0 
OCF  60  36  66  39  69 /   0   0   0   0   0 

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 1 PM EST this 
     afternoon for Waters from Altamaha Sound GA to Fernandina 
     Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Fernandina Beach to 
     St. Augustine FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from St. Augustine 
     to Flagler Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM.

     Gale Warning until 7 AM EST this morning for Coastal waters from 
     Altamaha Sound to Fernandina Beach FL out 20 NM-Coastal 
     waters from Fernandina Beach to St. Augustine FL out 20 NM-
     Coastal waters from St. Augustine to Flagler Beach FL out 
     20 NM-Waters from Altamaha Sound GA to Fernandina Beach FL 
     from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Fernandina Beach to St. 
     Augustine FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from St. Augustine to 
     Flagler Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM.

&&