169 
FXUS62 KMLB 042109
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
409 PM EST Sat Jan 4 2020

.DISCUSSION...

...Turning Much Colder Tonight Behind a Strong Cold Front...

Currently...Prefrontal squall line pushing south of I-4 as of mid 
aftn. A few storms generating wind gusts arnd 40mph, localized storm 
damage reported in Okahumpka and Deland earlier today due to 
possible weak tornadoes. Sharp temp drop acrs the squall line... 
L/M80s ahead of it with record or near record readings, L70s behind 
it. SW winds gusting to 25-30mph with sfc dewpoints in the 
U60s/L70s. Windshift has reached GNV/JAX with dewpoints in the L60s, 
suggesting the fropa has pushed into the nrn peninsula but has yet to 
reach the I-4 Corridor. 

Tonight-Sunday...The squall line is expected to exit into the FL 
Straits around 00Z, followed by a reinforcing front that will 
sweep thru central FL by daybreak. Isold/sct shras lingering over 
the Space and Treasure Coasts into early evng, but should push 
south of central FL before midnight. Turning much colder overnight
with min temps dropping into the L/M40s along and north of 
I-4...M/U40s Treasure Coast/Lake-O region...a temp whipsaw of 
20-25F from this morning's mins in the U60s/L70s. Wind gusts 
diminishing by sunset, but a tight pgrad in the wake of the fronts
will prevent the airmass from decoupling. Fcst winds overnight 
btwn 10-15mph may generate some wind chills in outlying areas 
north of I-4, but these would be brief and confined to the predawn
hrs.

Rapid clearing behind the front as winds veer to NW and produce a 
strong cold air advection pattern. High temps Sun in the L/M60s... 
about 5-10F blo avg. 

Sun night-Mon night...A high pressure over the northeast Gulf 
will take control of weather conditions during this period. PWAT 
values will be around a quarter of an inch, bringing RHs values to
below 30 percent from northern Osceola northward towards inland 
Volusia and Lake County on Monday. Lows on Sun night will drop to
the upper 30s from Volusia to inland Treasure Coast while Space
and Metro Orlando could hold on to lower 40s. Treasure Coast
meanwhile might drop to only the upper 40s. High temps will climb
to the upper 60s to near 70 across east central FL and cool down 
again on Mon night to the low- mid 40s for northern Osceola 
northward and upper 40s- lower 50s for the Space and Treasure 
Coast.

Tuesday-Friday (previous modified)...A weakening upper trough 
remains poised to push through a surface front across ECFL Tue 
night into early Wed morning, but moisture remains scant. Rain 
chances are forecast to be near none as in the latest model runs. 
Mostly dry for Wed-Thu, but models begin to bring deeper moisture
back into the region on Fri as winds veer SERLY. Again, a 20pct 
chance or less for any light precip on Fri and on Sat. 

Temps near climo on Tue for highs in the L70s most areas, and then
cooler again for Wed (post-frontal) in the M-U 60s, though perhaps
only L60s north of I-4. Thu highs rebound again into the L-M70s
with deeper onshore flow returning. Fri will be warmer yet in the
U70s, but perhaps just M70s along the immediate Volusia/N. Brevard
coasts. Lows generally 40s Tue overnight and a bit milder each
night Wed/Thu overnight. Fri overnight into Sat morning will be in
the 60s areawide with some L70s possible near the south
Brevard/Treasure coasts.&&

.AVIATION...
Thru 05/18Z.
Sfc Winds: Thru 05/00Z...W/SW bcmg W/NW 12-15KTS with fqnt sfc G21-
26KTS. Btwn 05/00Z-05/03Z...coastal sites bcmg W/NW 10-14KTS with 
ocnl sfc G18-22KTS...interior sites bcmg NW 8-12KTS. Btwn 05/12Z-
05/15Z bcmg N/NW 8-12KTS. 

Vsbys/WX/Cigs: Thru 05/00Z...SQLN S of KISM-KTIX to produce 
widespread IFR/areas LIFR cigs/vsbys in +shras. N of KISM-KTIX areas 
IFR cigs in -RA/RA bcmg MVFR cigs. Btwn 05/00Z-05/03Z...S of KVRB-
KOBE slgt chc MVFR shras. Btwn 05/03Z-05/06Z bcmg VFR all sites. 

&&

.MARINE...
Tonight...Initial cold front to push into the FL Straits by late 
evening, followed by a reinforcing front that also should clear the 
state by daybreak. Dangerous boating conds dvlpg as winds veer from 
W to NW, reaching near gale force with frequent gusts abv. Seas 
building to 6-8FT nearshore and 9-12FT offshore...up to 13FT in the 
Gulf Stream. Gale Watch all marine legs from 00Z/7PM Sun thru 
15Z/10AM Sun. Slgt chc of shras thru mid even. 

Sun...Conditions slow to improve as high pressure pushes acrs the 
GOMEX and maintains a tight pgrad. Small Craft Advisory criteria 
expected to linger for much of the day. A fresh to strong N/NW 
breeze early in the day, diminishing to a moderate to fresh breeze 
by midday, then gentle to moderate by sunset. Seas 6-8FT nearshore 
and 9-12FT offshore early, subsiding to 4-6FT over the shelf waters 
and and 6-8FT over the Gulf Stream by sunset. 

Mon-Wed (previous)...Generally favorable boating conditions thru 
the day Tue as high pressure remains in control, but is abruptly 
shifted eastward with the approach of another front Tue overnight.
Cautionary Statements for winds may be necessary Tue night 
offshore north of Sebastian Inlet as NW/N winds increase to 15-20 
kts and further southward across the Gulf Stream during the day 
Wed with veering toward the NNE/NE, then ERLY Wed night as speeds 
remain elevated. Seas will remain favorable and approachable thru 
Tue evening, then will build 3-5 ft near shore and 5-6 ft Gulf 
Stream thru the day Wed, perhaps up to 7 ft over the Gulf Stream 
Wed overnight from Sebastian Inlet southward. 

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Sunday-Monday (previous)...Latest model guidance coming in drier 
for these two days behind today's front. Expect min RHs in the 
30s across the interior both afternoons. We should see cool wind 
chills early Sun morning, then perhaps some light, patchy frost 
late Sun night into early Mon morning. Initial winds Sun morning 
may approach 10-15 mph, but decrease thru the afternoon as the 
pressure gradient relaxes. ERC values remain fairly low for this 
time of year. Watch/Warning headlines not anticipated.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  45  60  39  65 /  10   0   0   0 
MCO  47  63  42  68 /  10   0   0   0 
MLB  47  64  42  67 /  10   0   0   0 
VRB  50  63  43  68 /  10   0   0   0 
LEE  44  63  41  69 /  10   0   0   0 
SFB  46  63  40  68 /  10   0   0   0 
ORL  47  63  45  68 /  10   0   0   0 
FPR  49  64  44  68 /  20   0   0   0 

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Lake Wind Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for Coastal 
     Volusia-Indian River-Inland Volusia-Martin-Northern Brevard-
     Northern Lake-Okeechobee-Orange-Osceola-Seminole-Southern 
     Brevard-Southern Lake-St. Lucie.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for Flagler 
     Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 0-20 nm-Flagler Beach 
     to Volusia-Brevard County Line 20-60 nm-Sebastian Inlet to 
     Jupiter Inlet 0-20 nm-Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 20-
     60 nm-Volusia-Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 0-20 
     nm-Volusia-Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 20-60 nm.

     Gale Warning from 7 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Sunday for 
     Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 0-20 nm-
     Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 20-60 nm-
     Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 0-20 nm-Sebastian Inlet to 
     Jupiter Inlet 20-60 nm-Volusia-Brevard County Line to 
     Sebastian Inlet 0-20 nm-Volusia-Brevard County Line to 
     Sebastian Inlet 20-60 nm.

&&

$$

Negron/Bragaw/Rodriguez/Weitlich