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480 FXUS64 KFWD 010520 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 1120 PM CST Tue Dec 31 2019 .AVIATION... /06Z TAFs/ Concerns -- Breezy south winds, lowering ceilings, and low rain chances. A high cirrus deck continues to overspread the region this evening. Most of our METAR sites that report high clouds continue to report BKN250-300 at this hour. Ceilings should lower gradually through the day Wednesday, but should remain VFR. Winds will increase during the day Wednesday as well, with sustained winds of 15-20 KT likely at our Metroplex TAF sites. Wind gusts over 25 KT will be possible. Winds will be less across Central Texas, but 10-15 KT still appears likely. Rain chances will increase through Wednesday afternoon and into the overnight hours, but the highest chances will likely remain across Central and East TX. For now, will include a mention of VCSH at all TAF sites during the evening and overnight, but if confidence increases in rain occurring at the terminals, this will need to be upgraded to SHRA. A few TS will also be possible, but TS should remain well east of our TAF sites. Finally, most model guidance is suggesting that ceilings will lower further into Wednesday night, with MVFR likely at all terminals. Some models hint at the possibility of BR/FG at KACT, but with winds expected to remain around 10 KT, will leave out any mention of visibility restrictions at this time. Godwin && .UPDATE... /Issued 941 PM CST Tue Dec 31 2019/ /Rest of Tonight/ For what will be our final forecast update for 2019, the main update was to increase the cloud cover for the overnight period. The GOES-16 infrared channel shows a steady stream of cirrus moving over much of our forecast area. METAR sites that report high clouds show broken clouds at 25,000-30,000 ft. Despite needing to increase the cloud cover in the grids, the low temperatures look good. While the cirrus deck will limit radiational cooling, dewpoints are quite dry (most locations are still in the 20s), and winds should remain fairly light. It is still expected that overnight lows will fall into the 30s for most locations. Low, sheltered locations could see temperatures fall very near freezing. For tomorrow, rain shower chances will increase from southwest to northeast, mainly across Central and East Texas. High temperatures will rise into the 50s for most locations, but southerly winds of 10-15 mph will make it feel fairly chilly through the day. Godwin && .LONG TERM... /Issued 308 PM CST Tue Dec 31 2019/ /Thursday through Tuesday/ A deep upper trough will move slowly east across the state Thursday through Friday. The best moisture and large scale lift will remain across the eastern half of the forecast area on Thursday. Therefore, we will maintain the highest PoPs east of I-35 and low or no PoPs in the west. Much drier and cooler air will filter in from the northwest Thursday night through Friday behind a cold front. There will be an elevated threat for grass fires Friday afternoon due to falling humidity, an abundance of dormant vegetation and a breezy northwest wind, mainly west of the I-35 corridor. Dry northwest flow aloft will set up behind the departing trough Friday afternoon through Saturday, resulting in a mostly clear sky. Abundant sun will offset the low level cold air advection, keeping temperatures near seasonal normals with highs Friday in the 50s. Saturday will be slightly warmer with full insolation and weak return flow in the afternoon. Above normal temperature will continue on Sunday with dry westerly flow aloft and plenty of sun. Highs Sunday will be mainly in the 60s, however, temperatures will likely fall during the afternoon across the north with the passage of a weak cold front. The front will come through dry, but will keep temperatures near or slightly above normal (highs - 50s to around 60, lows - 30s to near 40) to start the first full work week of 2020. Some low rain chances may accompany a passing shortwave around the middle of next week, but moisture will likely be too limited for anything appreciable. 79 && .SHORT TERM... /Issued 1203 PM CST Tue Dec 31 2019/ /Through Wednesday Night/ Weak ridging aloft will keep North and Central Texas dry through much of the day Wednesday. Clear skies and a light southerly breeze is expected tonight, with lows ranging from the mid 30s in the north to lower 40s in the south. 2020 will kick off with temperatures a few degrees below normal and increasing rain chances late in the afternoon into the night. An upper level shortwave trough is responsible for the increasing rain chances, but given the lack of instability, thunderstorm probabilities will remain low. Rain chances will be the highest south of I-20 and east of I-35 Wednesday night where the best moisture and forcing for ascent will reside. A slight steepening of the mid-level lapse rates will occur as the upper level low moves overhead, leading to the potential for an isolated storm or two. However, no severe weather is expected. Hernandez && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 39 53 46 66 42 / 0 10 30 20 5 Waco 38 53 44 67 41 / 0 20 50 20 5 Paris 34 52 44 62 42 / 0 5 60 40 10 Denton 35 54 45 66 40 / 0 5 20 10 0 McKinney 35 53 45 65 41 / 0 5 30 20 5 Dallas 39 53 46 66 43 / 0 10 40 20 5 Terrell 35 53 45 66 41 / 0 10 60 20 5 Corsicana 38 51 45 63 42 / 0 20 70 40 5 Temple 39 52 45 66 42 / 0 30 60 20 5 Mineral Wells 35 54 44 64 38 / 0 10 10 10 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ 37/26