997 
FXUS66 KEKA 201230
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Eureka CA
430 AM PST Fri Dec 20 2019

.SYNOPSIS...Other than some patchy drizzle at the coast and some 
spotty light showers inland a brief break in the rain is expected
today. Gusty southerly winds will develop ahead of a cold front 
later today in advance of a prolonged period of rain expected on 
Saturday and Sunday. 

&&

.DISCUSSION...Main weather concerns going into the Holiday Week
will be centered around a wind and rain producing front that is
expected to affect the region starting later today. Southerly 
winds in advance of the front will ramp up later today with
near coast wind speeds in the 15 to 20 mph range. Winds will 
peak overnight with Gusts to 40 to 50 mph over the coastal hills 
where a Wind Advisory has been issued to reflect this period of 
stronger gusts. Forecast Models have the low level jet weakening 
by early Saturday morning as the front edges closer to the 
coastline...then slows progress on Saturday to nearly stationary
allowing plenty of rain to fall across the coastal and coastal 
interior zones. As much as 1-2 inches of rain is expected within
a 24-36 hour period...and more rain prone areas could see higher 
amounts. The front will very gradually move eastward continuing 
to drop rain across the interior zones through Sunday. The trend 
of slower progress will allow for brief periods of moderate to 
heavy rain on Saturday night but at this time no significant 
flooding is expected...but localized ponding of water and small 
creek overflow is certainly possible. The front should eventually 
push through by late Sunday. Cooler air aloft and instability will
follow behind the front on Sunday. Scattered showers and lower 
snow levels are expected (down to 3500 to 4000 feet by Sunday 
evening). Precip amounts look marginal for winter weather 
products. Cooler weather and possible showers will persist on 
Monday and Tuesday. The models have been trending drier on both 
days and the chance for showers may need to be removed from the 
forecast if this trend continues. The GFS and ECMWF have been 
consistently indicating another trough arriving around mid next 
week. We will probably receive more wet and unsettled weather 
around mid week, though the timing and duration remains uncertain.

&&

.AVIATION...Light rain and drizzle will continue north of Cape 
Mendocino through this morning. Only a short break in the rain is 
expected though, with light rain forecasted to return late in the 
TAF period along portions of the coast. Southerlies will continue to 
increase today and become quite gusty by tonight across portions of 
the forecast area, strongest along exposed ridges across the 
interior. Mostly MVFR to VFR conditions are expected through tonight 
at all terminals, though localized areas of IFR will be possible. 
Otherwise, areas of low-level wind shear will impact portions of the 
coast and some interior valleys through the TAF period.


&&

.MARINE...Gale Force southerlies developed in the northern outer 
waters overnight and are expected to spread to the southern outer 
waters later today. Gale Warnings are in place for the outer zones 
through late Saturday morning. The inner zones are expected to see 
mostly weaker winds, though winds around Cape Mendocino will be 
around Gale Force in strength. Small Craft Advisories are in place 
for both inner zones through early Saturday afternoon. Winds will 
die down by late Saturday evening while shifting to the north. 
Southerlies will return around the middle of the week as another 
storm system moves into the area. Steep, short-period seas are 
expected to develop across the outer waters and around Cape 
Mendocino today and peak late tonight. Seas will then gradually come 
down slowly through Saturday. Another northwest swell will move into 
the waters today, with additional west to northwest swells expected 
to arrive over the next seven days.


&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Wind Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM PST Saturday for 
     CAZ105-106.

NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until noon PST Saturday for PZZ450-455.

     Gale Warning until 9 AM PST Saturday for PZZ470.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PST this afternoon for PZZ475.

     Gale Warning from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 AM PST Saturday for 
     PZZ475.

&&

$$

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For forecast zone information
see the forecast zone map online:
https://www.weather.gov/images/eka/zonemap.png