312 
FXUS63 KILX 281937
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
137 PM CST Thu Nov 28 2019

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1054 AM CST Thu Nov 28 2019

Well today looks to remain gloomy, with extensive cloud coverage
remaining throughout the Thanksgiving holiday. Low clouds remain
overhead, with high cirrus clouds overspreading the region from
the west ahead of the next approaching weather system. The high
cirrus will restrict any sunlight from reaching the low stratus
deck, therefore limiting ability to erode. Winds will remain much
lighter today than the previous couple of days, however they will
continue to shift to the east, by late afternoon.

Watching the rain push into central Missouri, although many models
show erosion of rainfall as it approaches central Illinois, not
certain we won't get sprinkles or possibly light rain. Temp/Td
spread indicates dry sfc conditions, but with the low stratus
remaining around, could see quicker moisture filling, bringing
rain chances to the region this evening and overnight...will
continue to monitor and provide better analysis as the day
progresses.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 225 AM CST Thu Nov 28 2019

A ridge of high pressure currently extending from Manitoba
to the lower Mississippi River Valley will shift into central 
Illinois today...providing cool/dry weather. Typically high 
pressure would result in clearing skies: however, low-level
moisture will remain trapped beneath a strengthening subsidence
inversion. In addition, the low late November sun angle and light
N/NE winds will do little to dislodge the widespread cloud cover 
currently blanketing the Midwest north of a Kansas City to 
Louisville, Kentucky line. As a result, will forecast an overcast 
day with highs remaining in the upper 30s to around 40 degrees. 
Clouds will hold firm tonight as well, as overnight lows only drop
into the lower to middle 30s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 133 PM CST Thu Nov 28 2019

Most of the upcoming week will see relatively benign weather 
characterized by low amplitude upper pattern with northwest flow 
aloft across the Midwest. Deep upper low that impacts the region 
this weekend will shift to the east coast Monday while strong 
subsidence overspreads the Midwest in the wake of the low. 
Forecast soundings show rapid drying of the mid levels Monday with
a shallow but strong inversion which should lock in sky cover at 
least early in the day. Skies may begin to scatter out later 
Monday as low level anticyclonic flow spreads across the 
Mississippi Valley. 

A clipper system will dig across the Great Lakes on Tuesday. While 
precip is currently favored to stay north of central Illinois with
very dry column of air locally, temperatures do moderate back 
towards the seasonal norm in the southwest flow ahead of the wave.
Soundings indicate the column will remain fairly dry, but steep 
low level lapse rates developing behind the wave and surface 
trough as it comes across the area Tuesday night/very early 
Wednesday will result in increased cloud cover and breezy 
conditions, at least briefly. Rest of Wednesday and Thursday will
remain dry with diminishing winds as surface ridge builds back 
across the Mississippi Valley.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1155 AM CST Thu Nov 28 2019

High pressure over the region will result in light winds through
the period. Generally expect a northeast wind to veer around to 
the southeast by late tonight into Friday morning, though winds
may become variable at times given the weak magnitude. An 
expansive MVFR level stratus deck is in place across the Midwest 
and Great Lakes. While models want to scatter conditions back to 
VFR, it seems unlikely with high clouds moving overhead and 
further limiting daytime heating. Will keep MVFR conditions
through the period. Meanwhile an area of rain over Missouri will 
shift east across Illinois this evening and tonight. As it 
encounters dry mid level air, much of the precip is expected to 
erode, but cannot completely rule out a few sprinkles or some 
light rain, mainly at SPI and DEC.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Baker
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Deubelbeiss
AVIATION...Deubelbeiss