743 
FXUS64 KMOB 242153
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
353 PM CST Sun Nov 24 2019

.NEAR TERM /Now Through Monday/...A weak mid to upper level 
impulse embedded mainly in a zonal flow across the deep south will
move from northeast TX to North AL through Mon afternoon. A few 
high clouds will be possible with this pattern by late Mon 
afternoon. Near the surface high pressure centered along the LA 
coast late this afternoon will shift east to the eastern Gulf and 
FL peninsula by late Mon afternoon. With this expect light winds 
and clear skies tonight leading to better cooling near the surface
overnight and early Mon morning. Some fog, mainly patchy due to 
good mixing aloft, will also be possible mostly over inland 
southeast MS mainly after midnight tonight, lifting quickly after 
sunrise. 

Temps will be about 3 to 5 degrees below seasonal norms tonight 
rebounding to near seasonal levels during the day on Mon. Lows 
tonight will range from the mid to upper 30s for inland areas 
generally along and north of the I-10 corridor and the upper 30s to 
mid 40s to the south. Highs Mon will climb to the middle 60s for all 
locations.

A Moderate Risk for rip currents can be expected along the Gulf 
beaches of Alabama and Northwest Florida Tuesday through Wednesday 
night. 32/ee 


.SHORT TERM /Monday night Through Wednesday night/...Weak upper
level ridging will build in over the southeastern US ahead of an
approaching shortwave ejecting over the central Great Plains. By
Tuesday, the upper trough/low will deepen as it tracks northeast
towards the great lakes. An adjacent cold front will dive
southeast towards the Gulf coast Tuesday night. Ahead of the
front, southerly return flow will allow for moisture to surge
northward into central Alabama. Dewpoints will quickly rise into
the mid 60s to even low 70s along the coast. Rain will increase
late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning as the front enters the
area. Despite the increase in moisture, MLCAPE values will likely
remain >500 J/KG. However, if timing of the front lines up more
with the peak afternoon heating a few areas could hear a rumble of
thunder especially near the coast. Right now rain amounts will
likely range near a quarter to half an inch as the front will
quickly move through the area. 

Ahead of the front on Tuesday, Temperatures will rise into the to
possibly upper 70s with the southerly return flow. The degree of 
heating will likely be dependent on how much sun the area receives
as clouds will likely begin to move in from the northwest by the 
afternoon. Lows will be on the rise as well as dewpoints climb 
back into the low 60s. Behind the front, high temperatures will 
range from upper 60s in the northwest to upper 70s in the 
southeast counties as the front bisects our area. By Wednesday 
night, rain will likely clear the area and temperatures will 
begin to fall back into 40s and 50s. BB/03



.LONG TERM /Thursday Through Sunday/...Upper level high pressure
will dominate the second half of the week as it builds over the
Gulf of Mexico. Surface high pressure will build over the eastern
US leading to a dry northeasterly wind at the surface. Given the
building ridge aloft and drier air, Thursday and Friday will
remain mild and dry. High temperatures will range in the upper 
60s on Thursday to mid 70s on Friday with lows in the 40s and 50s.


By late Friday into Saturday, the upper ridge will begin to 
flatten out as a robust upper trough will move into the central 
US. There is still some uncertainty in the timing and strength of
this trough as it approaches the area Saturday. However, strong 
return flow and airmass recovery will likely proceed this feature 
over the weekend allowing for temperatures to rise and moisture 
to return. Given pattern recognition and CIPS analog guidance, 
this weekends system will need to be monitored closely as the week
progresses. Nonetheless, temperatures will be on the rise into 
the weekend and the chance for rain will likely return. BB/03


&&

.MARINE...Surface high pressure centered near the Lousiana coast 
will shift east to the eastern Gulf through Monday afternoon. A 
light westerly flow late this afternoon and this evening will become 
mostly north late tonight. A light to moderate southerly flow with 
building seas can be expected late Monday through midweek in 
response to a weak cold front approaching from the west.
32/ee

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      40  67  52  76  65  75  50  68 /   0   0   0  10  40  60  10  10 
Pensacola   44  66  54  76  67  77  54  70 /   0   0   0  10  20  60  10  10 
Destin      46  64  56  75  67  75  58  70 /   0   0   0   0  20  60  10  10 
Evergreen   38  66  45  76  63  74  49  68 /   0   0   0  10  20  70  10  10 
Waynesboro  36  65  47  76  63  68  45  66 /   0   0   0  30  60  70  10  10 
Camden      37  66  46  75  62  70  47  66 /   0   0   0  10  40  70  10  10 
Crestview   38  66  44  76  63  78  52  70 /   0   0   0   0  20  60  10  10 

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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