329 
FXUS65 KABQ 232350 AAA
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
450 PM MST Sat Nov 23 2019

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
Currently VFR conditions are in place across northern and central New
Mexico with just a band of high cirrus clouds over the southern half
of the state. There is some concern overnight that low clouds or fog
will develop in portions of central to northwestern New Mexico. Any
development should be fairly patchy and/or isolated with only
localized reductions to MVFR/IFR visibility. Breezes will increase 
near and downwind (east) of the central mountains/highlands Sunday 
afternoon, but any gusts higher than 30 kt should be few and far 
between.

52

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...242 PM MST Sat Nov 23 2019...
.SYNOPSIS...
Aside from some breezes, quiet conditions will persist through
Monday. Thereafter, big changes are on the way as a series of storm
systems impact New Mexico. The first, on Monday night and Tuesday,
will bring very strong winds to much of northern and central New
Mexico, as well as light snow to portions of northern and western New
Mexico. Abundant moisture will arrive with the second storm system on
Wednesday and Wednesday night. Snow, potentially heavy, is possible
along and east of the central mountain chain. Freezing rain will also
be possible for portions of the east central and southeast New
Mexico. A rain and snow mix will be possible for much of western New
Mexico. A third system looks to arrive late Thanksgiving night and
Friday with more rain and snow possible. 

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)... 
Quiet weather is expected through the remainder of the weekend. Weak
ridging over the Desert Southwest today has allowed for several 
degrees of warming across most areas and this trend will continue on 
Sunday. A weak wave will cross northern NM on Sunday, but it will 
remain dry, though breeziness will pick up along and east of the 
central mountain chain.

LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
Next week is looking to be a lot more active across the Land of 
Enchantment. A Pacific Northwest shortwave trough will dive 
southeastward Monday and Tuesday, increasing chances for snow west of
the central mountain chain. Tuesday's high temperatures will be a 
stark contrast to Monday with highs 5-15 degrees below normal. In 
addition, a 90-100 kt jet aloft will help increase winds along the 
eastern plains 25-35 mph. The position of the low, both at the 
surface and aloft, will dictate just how strong winds will be and 
what areas may need to be considered for a wind advisory in the 
future. 

There will be a brief break in the action Tuesday night, before 
another storm system will impact the state. Models are in relatively 
good agreement that a subtropical low off the coast of California 
will begin approaching the southern border of the state during the 
day Wednesday. Based off of soundings along eastbound I-40 and 
southward, precipitation looks to start off as snow throughout the 
afternoon/evening hours Wednesday. A transition to a freezing rain/ 
snow mix is possible during the early and mid-morning hours Thursday 
for areas across the eastern plains below 4500 ft. This is thanks to
warm-air advection occurring above the surface ahead of the next 
Pacific Northwest kicker trough. Hazardous travel conditions are 
possible for Wednesday afternoon through at least early Thanksgiving 
Day. Rain and snow will be the rule across the west. Lingering light 
rain and snow showers will be possible for Thanksgiving Day.

Another storm system is poised to cross the state sometime Friday
through the weekend, though there are timing difference between the
models. A strong baroclinic zone may set the stage for yet another
round of precipitation at least across the western 2/3 of the state 
into the Black Friday weekend. Temperatures largely remain below 
normal through the end of the week.

34/31

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Breezy conditions will slowly increase in areal coverage through
Monday, before a storm system and associated cold front sweeps 
across New Mexico Monday night and Tuesday bringing much stronger 
winds to the area. High temperatures will be well below normal on
Tuesday and RH values will be above 15%, thus critical conditions are
not expected. Though light snow will also be possible, the next storm
system will bring abundant moisture to the area Wednesday and
Wednesday night. Widespread rain and snow is likely for most areas, 
though northwest New Mexico may miss out. Significant snowfall is not
out of the question for areas along and east of the central mountain
chain. More rain and snow will be on the way for Thanksgiving night 
through Friday. Overall, a very active and wet pattern for the mid to
latter part of the week. 

Poor ventilation will be the rule for Sunday, but will improve on
Monday thanks to the increased breezes and warmer temperatures. Vent
rates will be excellent Tuesday, before becoming poor again on
Wednesday and Thursday.

34

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$