238 
FXUS63 KEAX 231726
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1126 AM CST Sat Nov 23 2019

.Discussion...
Issued at 317 AM CST SAT NOV 23 2019

Early this morning a mixture of drizzle, sleet, and light snow 
are affecting the southern and eastern CWA. this precipitation 
will exit the area this morning and a warming trend will begin for
the weekend. Clouds are expected to clear out from west to east 
this afternoon as the upper level trough that brought this 
precipitation moves east of the area. Northwest flow aloft will 
keep temperatures on the cool side in the mid 40s but that'll 
still be 5-10 degrees warmer than yesterday. Sunday the upper 
level flow become quasi- zonal and with downsloping westerly flow,
temperatures will rise into the mid 50s to near 60. Monday a mid-
level trough will swing into the western Great Lakes and force a 
weak cold front through the area during the day. The frontal 
passage will be dry and with little cold air behind it. Highs 
Monday will still reach the mid 50s to near 60. Monday into Monday
night a upper level trough will dig through the Rockies and by 
Tuesday will move into the central Plains. The cold front that 
dropped south of the CWA will lift back north on Tuesday bisecting
the CWA. Highs will be in the mid 40s north to the mid to upper 
50s south. WAA showers will be possible during the day Tuesday. 
Tuesday night a surface low along the front will move through the 
CWA. Strong CAA is expected behind this surface low and rain is 
expected to change over to snow across the northern CWA. The EC is
faster in ushering the cold air than the GFS. Consequently, EC 
snow totals are higher than the GFS with 1 to 4 inches being 
progged by west of I-35 and north of Highway 36 across 
northeastern Kansas ans northwestern Missouri. The GFS only 
depicts 0.5" to 1.5" across northern Missouri. This storm system 
shifts east of the area on Wednesday with high pressure building 
in at the surface. Despite upper level ridging building into the 
region on Wednesday, weak mixing will keep highs in the mid to 
upper 40s.

Conditions for the Thanksgiving holiday are still uncertain at this 
time due to model difference in the strength of 1)a upper level 
system that ejects out from the Southwestern CONUS into the area and 
2) the strength of the aforementioned surface high pressure on 
Thanksgiving morning. The EC is stronger with the upper level 
shortwave than the GFS while the GFS is stronger with the surface 
high pressure. The EC solution would have precipitation overspread 
the area in the morning with the chance for frozen precipitation 
along and north of the Missouri River. The GFS on the other hand is 
almost completely dry as dry air from the surface ridge of high 
pressure undercuts the precipitation. This system will continue to 
bear watching as we move towards the holiday.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1115 AM CST SAT NOV 23 2019

Skies clearing as high pressure moves in behind an upper level 
system moving towards the Southeast will result in VFR conditions
through the period. Westerly winds will remain under 12kts with
generally clear skies.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...73
Aviation...PPietrycha