645 
FXUS62 KJAX 120529
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
1229 AM EST Tue Nov 12 2019

.AVIATION...
[Through 06Z Wednesday]

Brief MVFR CIGS at SGJ overnight, otherwise VFR with some IFR
VSBYS developing towards morning at GNV/VQQ in fog along with some
MVFR VSBYS at JAX/CRG as well. Main event for the TAF set on
Tuesday will be the arrival of strong cold frontal passage from NW
to SE impacting the TAF sites in the 20-22z time frame with
increasing NW winds to 10-15 knots and widespread MVFR CIGS of
1000-2000 ft along with MVFR VSBYS in showers as well. These will
last approx 3-5 hours then rainfall ends at inland TAF sites as
winds shift to the North and increase to 15 knots with gusts of
20-25 knots with continued MVFR CIGS, except for a continued
trend downwards to IFR CIGS and continued rainfall at SGJ along
the NE Fl Coast.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [845 PM EST]...

.NEAR TERM [Tonight-Tuesday]... 

Tonight...Surface High pressure located over Georgia and the Carolinas 
will slowly pull away to our north and east, allowing the low level 
flow to become southerly this evening while onshore winds at the surface 
remain light and variable before shifting to the south by Tuesday morning.
This will help increase moisture levels into this evening and creating a 
potential for fog development. Lows overnight will be milder with
mid to upper 50s for most inland areas with low to mid 60s along 
the coast.

Tomorrow...As high pressure moves pulls away from the southeast coast, 
the next Arctic cold front currently stretching from the Ohio 
Valley southwest into north Texas will move towards our area 
Tuesday. Mid and high level clouds will increase ahead of the 
front as it moves through southeast Georgia in the late morning to
midday hours and then presses south through northeast Florida by 
the afternoon bringing a likely chance of rain showers. Rain will
begin initially as the front passes and then linger behind the 
front into Tuesday evening, especially along the coast. Highs 
Tuesday will range from the mid 60s north and west of Waycross to 
the low 70s near I-10 with mid to upper 70s for areas from 
Gainesville to St Augustine southward.


.MARINE...High pressure ridge north of the waters will shift
offshore tonight. A strong cold front will approach on Tuesday and
move across the waters by Tuesday evening. Gale force gusts will
be possible Tuesday night and Wednesday as strong high pressure
builds into the area. NE winds and seas will remain elevated
through late week as low pressure intensifies off the east coast.


.HYDROLOGY...Elevated waters levels will continue with levels
producing minor flooding near the times of high tide through 
Tuesday due to the full moon phase. High astronomical tides will 
combine with strong onshore winds on Wednesday and may produce 
moderate flood levels around high tide.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

AMG  69  31  51  37  58 /  60  20   0   0  20 
SSI  75  39  57  48  64 /  60  40  10  10  30 
JAX  77  39  58  48  68 /  70  50  10  10  20 
SGJ  79  50  64  57  73 /  60  60  10  20  30 
GNV  78  41  60  50  71 /  50  30   0  10  20 
OCF  80  46  64  54  75 /  30  30   0  10  20 

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Coastal Flood Advisory until noon EST Thursday for Clay-Coastal 
     Duval-Coastal Flagler-Coastal Nassau-Coastal St. Johns-
     Inland Duval-Inland Flagler-Inland St. Johns-Putnam.

GA...None.
AM...Gale Watch from this evening through Wednesday morning for 
     Coastal waters from Altamaha Sound to Fernandina Beach FL 
     out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Fernandina Beach to St. 
     Augustine FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from St. Augustine to 
     Flagler Beach FL out 20 NM-Waters from Altamaha Sound GA to 
     Fernandina Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Fernandina 
     Beach to St. Augustine FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from St. 
     Augustine to Flagler Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM.

&&