894 
FXUS63 KILX 091705
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1105 AM CST Sat Nov 9 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 345 AM CST Sat Nov 9 2019

Dry weather should prevail across central and southeast Illinois
through Sunday evening. Breezy southwest winds along with skies 
becoming mostly sunny today, will warm temperatures into the 
upper 40s and lower 50s this afternoon. Not as cool tonight with
lows in the mid to upper 30s. Clouds will increase on Sunday with
highs in the low to mid 50s. A weather system will bring a good
chance of rain and snow to the area overnight Sunday night and
Monday, with light snow accumulations possible north of I-70. 
Polar air will usher back into Illinois Monday night through the 
middle of next week. 

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1102 AM CST Sat Nov 9 2019

Not a lot of change, just updated winds and sky coverage
throughout the first 4 periods. Have some cirrus clouds starting
to overtake the region, well ahead of the frontal system that will
slide through late Sunday into Monday. Southerly winds have
increased, bringing warmer temperatures to the area this morning,
with highs expected to climb into the 40s and 50s today. This
trend will continue overnight through Sunday ahead of the cold
airmass that will arrive Monday afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST Sat Nov 9 2019

Early morning surface map shows 1026 mb high pressure across the
Southeast States while 1010 mb low pressure was just north of MN
with its cold front extending thru central MN into southeast 
Nebraska. Broken to overcast stratocumulus clouds (bases of 4-7k 
ft) were over the eastern half of CWA from highway 51 east and 
decreasing from the west. Temps were in the upper 20s and lower
30s with increasing southerly winds of 5-15 mph. Aloft a large
upper level trof was over the central and northeast US with strong
503 dm 500 mb low just se of Hudson Bay Canada. Meanwhile an upper
level ridge was over the Southwest US States with IL firmly
entrenched in a nw upper level flow.

A weak short wave trof over IN and eastern IL early this morning
will exit east of the area during this morning, with stratocumulus
clouds continuing to decrease over eastern half of CWA into mid
morning. Otherwise a fair amount of sunshine expected across the 
area rest of today with breezy sw winds 10-20 mph with gusts in
the 20s on back side of high pressure over the Southeast States. 
Strongest winds west of I-57 this morning shift into eastern IL 
this afternoon. Highs today in the upper 40s and lower 50s, with 
warmest readings sw CWA where mid 50s possible from Jacksonville 
sw. 

Fair weather expected tonight as cold front moves se into nw IL by
dawn Sunday. SW winds diminish to 10 mph or less around sunset. 
More seasonable lows in the mid to upper 30s tonight across CWA,
mildest over sw CWA.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST Sat Nov 9 2019

Cold front to initially pass dry across area as it tracks se
across central on Sunday, reaching southeast IL by sunset. Clouds
to increase during Sunday. Highs Sunday range from upper 40s to
around 50F northern CWA to mid to upper 50s in southeast IL.  

Increasing moisture and lift behind the cold front to increase
chances of light rain/snow over central IL during overnight Sunday
night into Monday. Thermal profiles cooling from nw to se during
Monday to change light rain to light snow or mix in southeast IL
on Monday afternoon. Light precipitation to likely linger east of
I-55 Mon afternoon and light pcpn lingers in only far se IL early
Mon evening. Snow accumulations of a half to 1 inch possible in
central IL with little or no snow in southeast IL. Lows Sunday
night range from upper 20s northern CWA to mid 30s in southeast
IL. Morning highs Mon range from lower 30s northern CWA to upper
30s/lower 40s in southeast IL, with temps likely slipping during
Mon afternoon.

Arctic air to usher into the area on Monday night and stick around
thru at least mid week. Lows Mon night and Tue night in the low to
mid teens and some cities could approach record lows. Wind chills
Mon night to get as low as 5 below to 5 above zero, coldest north
of I-70. Despite a fair amount of sunshine Tuesday as strong
Canadian high pressure settles into the mid MS river valley by
sunset Tue, highs will only reach the low to mid 20s. This is near
30 degrees below normal for this time of year. 

Canadian high pressure drifts east over the Ohio river valley on
Wed with southerly flow moderating temps into the low to mid 30s
with lows Wed night in the low to mid 20s, still well below 
normal levels. Models have trended further north with a northern 
stream short wave trof affecting mainly the great lakes and ne IL 
overnight Wed night into Thu morning, so much of our area should 
be dry with some flurries possible ne of I-74 later Wed night into
Thu morning. Dry and chilly wx to prevail rest of the week into 
next weekend. Highs Thu in the upper 30s/lower 40s, low to mid 40s
on Friday and mid to upper 40s next Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
Issued at 559 AM CST Sat Nov 9 2019

VFR conditions are forecast to continue across the central IL
airports through 12Z/6 am Sunday. Broken to overcast stratocumulus
cloud deck with ceilings around 5k ft to push east of CMI in about
an hour as weak short wave exits east of IL. Otherwise few to 
scattered mid/high clouds present over central IL next 24 hours. 
South winds 10-14 kts at dawn to veer sw and increase to near 15 
kts with gusts of 18-25 kts next few hours. Winds to diminish to 
4-8 kts early this evening and be SSW tonight. 


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Baker
SYNOPSIS...07
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...07