142 
FXUS63 KFGF 091636
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1036 AM CST Sat Nov 9 2019

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1020 AM CST Sat Nov 9 2019

Mid morning analysis of dual-pol radar, surface observations, 
and webcams place the rain/snow line just east of Valley City
northwest through Carrington with rain south of this line. This
NW/SE orientation should remain in place through the day with the
line gradually pushing southward as colder air comes in from the 
north. Banding is coming to fruition near the rain/snow line as 
expected as a result of low level fgen. This area fgen is still 
expected to push southeast through the remainder of the day 
resulting in the potential for locations to receive a quick 1-2 
inches of snow, including the Fargo-Moorhead area. While areas of 
freezing rain will be possible in the far southern Red River 
Valley and southeastern ND through the rest of the morning, 
already increasing surface and wet-bulb temps should limit greater
impact potential. Both areas that receive moderate snow and light
freezing rain could see hazardous travel conditions develop.

Elsewhere, widespread light snow is still expected today with 
less than an inch generally anticipated. Biggest change to the 
forecast this update was to increase PoPs with the cold fropa this
evening across the region, along with an increase to PoPs and QPF
areas south of Lake of the Woods this evening due to increased 
confidence in a lingering area of lake- effect snow.


UPDATE Issued at 657 AM CST Sat Nov 9 2019

Radar returns out of Minot AFB depicting leading edge of precip
with rain reported. Tight low level baroclinic zone across 
central ND will lead to a quick transition of rain to snow with a 
narrow ribbon of freezing rain or sleet possible. Thus added to
the areas west and south of DVL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 338 AM CST Sat Nov 9 2019

Challenge for the short term is what impacts will be created with
precip band that moves across the area today. Weak sfc low will
traverse SE from western MT into SW ND and SD with a band of 
precip north of its track. Temperature profiles ahead of the 
surface low will be warm enough for rain in far SE ND with snow 
to the north as areas along the SD/ND border approach 40 with
areas along and north of I94 corridor will be in the low 30s.
QPF signals in the CAMs suggest a quick burst of around a tenth 
of an inch in an hour or two as 850mb to 700mb frontogenetical 
forcing stretches southeast from central ND into the southern Red 
River valley. This is where a narrow band of intense snowfall 
rates will bring a quick inch, possibly two, of snow late this 
morning into the early afternoon. Elsewhere to the north less than
an inch is expected with lighter snowfall rates. Behind the 
precip CAA will increase with some gusty north winds up to 30mph 
and periods of flurries continuing into the evening especially in 
the southern valley. Temps on Sunday will be nearly steady as cold
air continues push south with 1040 arctic high pressure building 
into the high plains. Highs will be in the teens to low 20s.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 338 AM CST Sat Nov 9 2019

Extended period ahead is looking mainly cold with an opportunity for 
some light midweek snow.  Unseasonally robust Arctic high will be in 
place on Mon featuring 850 mb temps in the minus 20 to 25 degree 
range. Temps at the sfc will likely top out in the mid Jan 10 to 15 
above range. Cloud cover will ultimately play a role in overnight 
into Tue morning lows, with the smart money going with near zero for 
sure, and 5 to 10 below over some tracts of NE ND and NW MN. 

Low pressure and shortwave will trend this way around about Wed with 
differing details among deterministic and ensemble guidance. WAA 
will likely place a swath of an inch or two of snow over central or 
southern parts of the forecast area during this time. 

Thu and Fri look to be dry with temps trending up toward normal.
850 temps popping above 0C by Fri should translate to sfc readings 
above freezing to near 40.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
Issued at 657 AM CST Sat Nov 9 2019

Will see a band of snow move across the area today with impacts
expected at DVL, GFK, and FAR. Expecting primarily MVFR CIGs at 
all TAF sites with north winds developing in the afternoon and 
evening gusts at FAR and GFK could be around 25kts. CIGs lift
overnight.  


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CJ
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...WJB
AVIATION...JK