306 
FXUS66 KEKA 091302
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Eureka CA
502 AM PST Sat Nov 9 2019

.SYNOPSIS...Dry weather will continue to prevail through next week.
A deeper marine layer will keep coastal areas mostly cloudy for 
at least one more day. Increasing northerly winds offshore should 
result in some break up of the coastal cloud cover on Sunday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...The marine layer deepened and pushed farther into 
the coastal river valleys of Humboldt and Del Norte counties 
overnight. Expect the low clouds to clear out over most of the 
interior valleys, while coastal areas remain under grey overcast 
skies again today. Increasing northerly winds on Sunday should
mix out the stratus, especially south of Cape Mendocino.

The remainder of the interior be sunny (filtered through high
level cirrus clouds today) with above normal high temperatures 
again today. We expect more of the same for Sunday and early next
week as the ridge aloft continues to dominate. 

Sunday night into Monday, northeast flow will increase a bit over
the interior, with wind gusts to 25 mph possible around the 
highest exposed ridgetops. Humidity will remain low through Sunday
night, perhaps only recovering to 25 to 35 percent over the
ridgetops. Do not anticipate widespread critical fire weather 
conditions or significant winds at this time. 

Heading into next week, expect little change in the dry weather 
pattern. There will probably be more high cloud cover and 
temperatures will trend downward around mid week as the ridge 
flattens out in response to a progressive shortwave trough. We do 
have a chance of rain in the forecast late in the week. Deterministic
models remain mixed, but the NAEFS and NBM continue to trend toward
climatological normals, around 30-40%. GEFS as well as deterministic
models indicate the ridge springing back quickly after this shortwave
heads eastward. Confidence we are going to receive any rain late 
next week remains quite low. 


&&

.AVIATION...While visibility reductions at coastal terminals have 
not been as severe overnight as in recent days, widespread IFR 
ceilings prevail early this morning, with some LIFR conditions at 
ACV. Low ceilings are likely to continue at both CEC through the 
day, likely fluctuating between IFR and MVFR, with solid IFR to 
potentially LIFR ceilings overnight. Otherwise, VFR conditions with 
light winds will continue at UKI. /BRC

&&

.MARINE...Light to moderate northerlies and low seas will continue 
through most of daylight hours today, although wind speeds will 
gradually increase. By late in the evening, fresh to strong 
northerlies will develop from Cape Mendocino southward, with 
sustained speeds between 15 to 25 kt and gusts to 30 kt very near 
the Cape. Steep seas will build in response, likely reaching 6 to 8 
feet at roughly 6 seconds. These conditions will persist through at 
least overnight Sunday, but northerlies will weaken early Monday and 
allow steeper seas to slowly settle. A Small Craft Advisory has been 
issued for the southern outer waters (marine zone 475) from 9 PM 
tonight through 3 AM Monday, although mariners can also expect 
hazardous conditions all the way to shore in the vicinity of Cape 
Mendocino. 

From Monday through roughly mid week, seas will be dominated by a 
series of westerly and northwesterly swells. This will maintain 
elevated seas, although not likely large enough to require 
additional small craft advisories. Late in the week a weak cold 
front will cause winds to switch to the south, although exactly how 
strong these winds will be and the exact timing of this front 
remains somewhat uncertain. /BRC

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 3 AM PST Monday  
for PZZ475.

&&

$$

Visit us at https://www.weather.gov/eureka

Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at:
https://www.facebook.com/NWSEureka
https://www.twitter.com/NWSEureka

For forecast zone information
see the forecast zone map online:
https://www.weather.gov/images/eka/zonemap.png

304 
FXUS66 KEKA 091441
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Eureka CA
502 AM PST Sat Nov 9 2019

.SYNOPSIS...Dry weather will continue to prevail through next week.
A deeper marine layer will keep coastal areas mostly cloudy for 
at least one more day. Increasing northerly winds offshore should 
result in some break up of the coastal cloud cover on Sunday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...The marine layer deepened and pushed farther into 
the coastal river valleys of Humboldt and Del Norte counties 
overnight. Expect the low clouds to clear out over most of the 
interior valleys, while coastal areas remain under grey overcast 
skies again today. Increasing northerly winds on Sunday should
mix out the stratus, especially south of Cape Mendocino.

The remainder of the interior will be sunny (filtered through high 
level cirrus clouds today) with above normal high temperatures again 
today. We expect more of the same for Sunday and early next week as 
the ridge aloft continues to dominate. 

Sunday night into Monday, northeast flow will increase a bit over
the interior, with wind gusts to 25 mph possible around the 
highest exposed ridgetops. Humidity will remain low through Sunday
night, perhaps only recovering to 25 to 35 percent over the
ridgetops. Do not anticipate widespread critical fire weather 
conditions or significant winds at this time. 

Heading into next week, expect little change in the dry weather 
pattern. There will probably be more high cloud cover and 
temperatures will trend downward around mid week as the ridge 
flattens out in response to a progressive shortwave trough. We do 
have a chance of rain in the forecast late in the week. Deterministic
models remain mixed, but the NAEFS and NBM continue to trend toward
climatological normals, around 30-40%. GEFS as well as deterministic
models indicate the ridge springing back quickly after this shortwave
heads eastward. Confidence we are going to receive any rain late 
next week remains quite low. 


&&

.AVIATION...While visibility reductions at coastal terminals have 
not been as severe overnight as in recent days, widespread IFR 
ceilings prevail early this morning, with some LIFR conditions at 
ACV. Low ceilings are likely to continue at both CEC through the 
day, likely fluctuating between IFR and MVFR, with solid IFR to 
potentially LIFR ceilings overnight. Otherwise, VFR conditions with 
light winds will continue at UKI. /BRC

&&

.MARINE...Light to moderate northerlies and low seas will continue 
through most of daylight hours today, although wind speeds will 
gradually increase. By late in the evening, fresh to strong 
northerlies will develop from Cape Mendocino southward, with 
sustained speeds between 15 to 25 kt and gusts to 30 kt very near 
the Cape. Steep seas will build in response, likely reaching 6 to 8 
feet at roughly 6 seconds. These conditions will persist through at 
least overnight Sunday, but northerlies will weaken early Monday and 
allow steeper seas to slowly settle. A Small Craft Advisory has been 
issued for the southern outer waters (marine zone 475) from 9 PM 
tonight through 3 AM Monday, although mariners can also expect 
hazardous conditions all the way to shore in the vicinity of Cape 
Mendocino. 

From Monday through roughly mid week, seas will be dominated by a 
series of westerly and northwesterly swells. This will maintain 
elevated seas, although not likely large enough to require 
additional small craft advisories. Late in the week a weak cold 
front will cause winds to switch to the south, although exactly how 
strong these winds will be and the exact timing of this front 
remains somewhat uncertain. /BRC

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 3 AM PST Monday  
for PZZ475.

&&

$$

Visit us at https://www.weather.gov/eureka

Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at:
https://www.facebook.com/NWSEureka
https://www.twitter.com/NWSEureka

For forecast zone information
see the forecast zone map online:
https://www.weather.gov/images/eka/zonemap.png