AFOS product AFDICT
Dates interpreted at 00:00 UTC

Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDICT
Product Timestamp: 2019-11-09 11:24 UTC

Download date range (UTC midnight)
Bulk Download Bulk Download
215 
FXUS63 KICT 091124
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
524 AM CST Sat Nov 9 2019

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 307 AM CST Sat Nov 9 2019

A dry weekend is in store with big changes coming to start the work 
week. Northwesterly flow aloft will continue through the weekend as 
upper ridging remains over the western CONUS. Warm air advection 
will combine with downslope westerly winds to warm us up to near, 
and even above, seasonable norms today. Temps will reach the mid 70s 
in central KS, around 70 in south central KS, and the mid 60s in 
southeast KS.

A ridge will amplify along the Pacific Coast and help drive an 
arctic airmass through the Central Plains tomorrow. The leading edge 
of the associated cold front will make its way through the area 
tomorrow afternoon which will likely impact the high temperatures. 

Moisture remains to be a limiting factor regarding precip chances
late tomorrow night and Monday. Models have backed off a bit as 
far as coverage. Best chance for precip will be across portions of
south central and southeast KS where the best moisture will 
combine with increased frontal convergence, increasing chances of 
rain tomorrow evening. As the arctic airmass continues to trek 
southward overnight, rain across south central and southeast KS 
may transition to a wintry mix. As mentioned in the previous 
discussion Bufkit soundings continue to suggest a transition from 
rain to a wintry mix of light rain/freezing rain to light snow.

As the coldest temperatures arrive, the chance of precipitation 
decreases therefore limiting any accumulation other than a light 
dusting at most. However, the transition to wintry mix will occur 
during the early commute hours Monday morning which could impact 
morning travel. An additional feature to watch is an area of 
strong 650mb frontogenesis will quickly translate south through 
the area Monday morning/early afternoon which could squeeze out 
some flurries across the area as it passes through. Left this out 
of the forecast for now given low pop.

The better story will be the surge of anomalously cold air that will 
plunge through the region overnight tomorrow through Tuesday. Sfc 
high pressure anomalies continue to show +3 standard deviations 
above normal by Tuesday morning, pointing to potential record cold 
for some locations. Highs Monday and Tuesday are only expected to be 
in the 30s. Gusty winds expected Monday will result in wind chills 
in the teens throughout the day. The cold surge combined with strong 
sfc high pressure will allow lows Tuesday morning to dip into the 
single digits in central KS and teens across south central and 
southeast KS. Wind chills will may approach zero in portions of 
central KS and the single digits and teens across south central and 
southeast KS.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Friday)
Issued at 307 AM CST Sat Nov 9 2019

Thankfully, the cold is not here to stay. Expect high temperatures 
to climb back into the 50s from Wednesday through the extended
period. Otherwise, another mid level trough is expected mid week 
and is not expected to bring any additional precipitation to the 
area. Weak ridging looks to set up thereafter and will support dry
conditions through the end of the work week. Models diverge 
greatly in the system approaching for next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
Issued at 524 AM CST Sat Nov 9 2019

VFR conditions expected to prevail thru the forecast valid period. 
Southwest to south winds are expected today and early tonight
ahead of a cold front. The front should reach the I-70 corridor 
in central Kansas after midnight tonight. 

KED

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    70  41  64  29 /   0   0   0  20 
Hutchinson      73  39  61  26 /   0   0   0  10 
Newton          70  41  61  26 /   0   0   0  20 
ElDorado        69  43  64  28 /   0   0   0  30 
Winfield-KWLD   69  43  68  31 /   0   0   0  30 
Russell         76  38  55  24 /   0   0   0   0 
Great Bend      75  38  57  24 /   0   0   0   0 
Salina          73  40  58  25 /   0   0   0   0 
McPherson       71  39  60  25 /   0   0   0  10 
Coffeyville     66  43  69  33 /   0   0   0  60 
Chanute         66  43  65  31 /   0   0   0  50 
Iola            66  43  64  30 /   0   0   0  50 
Parsons-KPPF    66  43  67  32 /   0   0   0  60 

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KMB
LONG TERM...KMB
AVIATION...KED