National Weather Service Text Product
AFOS product AFDICT
Dates interpreted at 00:00 UTCDisplaying AFOS PIL: AFDICT
Product Timestamp: 2019-11-09 11:24 UTC
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215 FXUS63 KICT 091124 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 524 AM CST Sat Nov 9 2019 .SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday night) Issued at 307 AM CST Sat Nov 9 2019 A dry weekend is in store with big changes coming to start the work week. Northwesterly flow aloft will continue through the weekend as upper ridging remains over the western CONUS. Warm air advection will combine with downslope westerly winds to warm us up to near, and even above, seasonable norms today. Temps will reach the mid 70s in central KS, around 70 in south central KS, and the mid 60s in southeast KS. A ridge will amplify along the Pacific Coast and help drive an arctic airmass through the Central Plains tomorrow. The leading edge of the associated cold front will make its way through the area tomorrow afternoon which will likely impact the high temperatures. Moisture remains to be a limiting factor regarding precip chances late tomorrow night and Monday. Models have backed off a bit as far as coverage. Best chance for precip will be across portions of south central and southeast KS where the best moisture will combine with increased frontal convergence, increasing chances of rain tomorrow evening. As the arctic airmass continues to trek southward overnight, rain across south central and southeast KS may transition to a wintry mix. As mentioned in the previous discussion Bufkit soundings continue to suggest a transition from rain to a wintry mix of light rain/freezing rain to light snow. As the coldest temperatures arrive, the chance of precipitation decreases therefore limiting any accumulation other than a light dusting at most. However, the transition to wintry mix will occur during the early commute hours Monday morning which could impact morning travel. An additional feature to watch is an area of strong 650mb frontogenesis will quickly translate south through the area Monday morning/early afternoon which could squeeze out some flurries across the area as it passes through. Left this out of the forecast for now given low pop. The better story will be the surge of anomalously cold air that will plunge through the region overnight tomorrow through Tuesday. Sfc high pressure anomalies continue to show +3 standard deviations above normal by Tuesday morning, pointing to potential record cold for some locations. Highs Monday and Tuesday are only expected to be in the 30s. Gusty winds expected Monday will result in wind chills in the teens throughout the day. The cold surge combined with strong sfc high pressure will allow lows Tuesday morning to dip into the single digits in central KS and teens across south central and southeast KS. Wind chills will may approach zero in portions of central KS and the single digits and teens across south central and southeast KS. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Friday) Issued at 307 AM CST Sat Nov 9 2019 Thankfully, the cold is not here to stay. Expect high temperatures to climb back into the 50s from Wednesday through the extended period. Otherwise, another mid level trough is expected mid week and is not expected to bring any additional precipitation to the area. Weak ridging looks to set up thereafter and will support dry conditions through the end of the work week. Models diverge greatly in the system approaching for next weekend. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning) Issued at 524 AM CST Sat Nov 9 2019 VFR conditions expected to prevail thru the forecast valid period. Southwest to south winds are expected today and early tonight ahead of a cold front. The front should reach the I-70 corridor in central Kansas after midnight tonight. KED && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Wichita-KICT 70 41 64 29 / 0 0 0 20 Hutchinson 73 39 61 26 / 0 0 0 10 Newton 70 41 61 26 / 0 0 0 20 ElDorado 69 43 64 28 / 0 0 0 30 Winfield-KWLD 69 43 68 31 / 0 0 0 30 Russell 76 38 55 24 / 0 0 0 0 Great Bend 75 38 57 24 / 0 0 0 0 Salina 73 40 58 25 / 0 0 0 0 McPherson 71 39 60 25 / 0 0 0 10 Coffeyville 66 43 69 33 / 0 0 0 60 Chanute 66 43 65 31 / 0 0 0 50 Iola 66 43 64 30 / 0 0 0 50 Parsons-KPPF 66 43 67 32 / 0 0 0 60 && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...KMB LONG TERM...KMB AVIATION...KED