863 
FXUS63 KFGF 070335
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
935 PM CST Wed Nov 6 2019

.UPDATE...
Issued at 935 PM CST Wed Nov 6 2019

There are still some thicker clouds along the Red River Valley 
that are still producing some flurries, so extended the mention 
of flurries into the early morning hours. Otherwise wind speeds 
have decreased in most areas as expected.

UPDATE Issued at 541 PM CST Wed Nov 6 2019

Quite a bit of cloud cover remains across the FA early this
evening, and flurries are being reported under these clouds. Went
ahead and increased cloud amounts into the evening and added the
mention of flurries. The gusty winds are already dropping and
they should become light by early to mid evening. Cloud cover 
should also decrease somewhat, setting the stage for another cold
night.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 211 PM CST Wed Nov 6 2019

For the near term this afternoon, the latest visible satellite 
imagery shows a stratocumulus field covering most of eastern North
Dakota through Minnesota. Lake effect induced snow showers around
Lake of the Woods expected to continue through this evening as 
steep low level lapse rates and lake effect elements per Bemidji 
RAP13 BUFKIT sounding suggests lake effect snow showers will 
continue. Thus will keep a chance of snow in Lake of the Woods
with flurries farther south into eastern Beltrami County.

Latest water vapor imagery loop shows a shortwave over northwest 
Saskatchewan and this will slide southeast tonight, reaching eastern 
North Dakota 12z-15z Thursday. This shortwave lobe is tied to the 
leading edge of warm air advection which will steadily increase
through Thursday night. Weak area of large scale ascent along and
ahead of this shortwave tonight per NAM/GFS Q-Vector Convergence 
scoots through. However, marginal mid level lapse rates and a 
lack of low level frontogenetical forcing should limit PoPs to 
a slight chance for light snow around Lake of the woods. Elsewhere,
surface high pressure moving into central and southern South Dakota
will provide for a clear and cold night. Lows tonight will range 
between 5F and 13F.

For Thursday, surface high pressure slides into Nebraska and Iowa,
with surface winds becoming westerly. Expect a sunny day with highs
in the 20s. 

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 211 PM CST Wed Nov 6 2019

Ribbon of low level (Sfc-850mb) warm air advection propagates 
through Thursday night, as low level winds becoming southwesterly. 
That will set the stage for a milder day Friday with highs in the
30s. Mid and high clouds will be on the increase Friday afternoon,
especially across the north. This will occur ahead of a leading 
clipper cold front which will shift from north to south late Friday
night through the day Saturday. The strongest core of cold air 
advection slides through Saturday night into Sunday morning. Chances
for snow increase Friday night north then across the rest of our 
region Saturday through Sunday. Snowfall accumulations for the 
most part look to be less than one inch, but perhaps enhanced a 
bit over Lake of the Woods where a couple of inches are possible. 
H85 temps Sunday and Monday are forecast to be very cold, ranging 
between -20C to -24C. The NAEFS/North American Ensemble Forecast 
System Table show these H85 temps either at or near the minimum 
climatological values during the Sunday and Monday timeframe. 
With a 1046mb surface high shifting over central and southeast 
North Dakota Monday and Monday night, lows zero to 5 above look 
credible Monday morning and Tuesday morning, with highs in the 
lower to mid teens Sunday through Tuesday. Dry Monday and Tuesday,
then for Wednesday, the GFS and ECMWF show another clipper. The 
current GFS track would affect eastern North Dakota and western 
Minnesota, while the current ECMWF s more focused with precipitation
across southeastern North Dakota and south central Minnesota.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 541 PM CST Wed Nov 6 2019

For the most part the current cloud cover is in the lower end of
the VFR range, and is producing flurries. The clouds and flurries
should begin to decrease by early to mid evening, and winds will
continue to drop as well. After that point, winds should remain
light and do not foresee any cloud impacts either.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Godon
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...Godon